Ongoing US and Israeli military actions against Iran since late February 2026 have triggered sustained restrictions on commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime chokepoint handling roughly 20 percent of global oil and LNG shipments. Iranian forces have asserted control via inspections, tolls, and threats of attack, while US Central Command maintains a blockade intercepting vessels linked to Iranian ports. Recent naval skirmishes and continued standoffs have kept daily transits at single-digit levels, well below the pre-conflict average of over 100 vessels. With these security risks and rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope persisting into late May, trader consensus assigns overwhelming probability to sharply reduced volumes at month-end.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоAvg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of May?
Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of May?
0-10 87%
10-20 7%
20-40 2.8%
60+ 2.8%
$305,766 Обс.
$305,766 Обс.
May 31, 2026
0-10
87%
10-20
7%
20-40
3%
40-60
2%
60+
3%
0-10 87%
10-20 7%
20-40 2.8%
60+ 2.8%
$305,766 Обс.
$305,766 Обс.
May 31, 2026
0-10
$167,736 Обс.
87%
10-20
$41,023 Обс.
7%
20-40
$31,709 Обс.
3%
40-60
$24,614 Обс.
2%
60+
$40,684 Обс.
3%
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for May 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to May 31, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for May 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing US and Israeli military actions against Iran since late February 2026 have triggered sustained restrictions on commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime chokepoint handling roughly 20 percent of global oil and LNG shipments. Iranian forces have asserted control via inspections, tolls, and threats of attack, while US Central Command maintains a blockade intercepting vessels linked to Iranian ports. Recent naval skirmishes and continued standoffs have kept daily transits at single-digit levels, well below the pre-conflict average of over 100 vessels. With these security risks and rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope persisting into late May, trader consensus assigns overwhelming probability to sharply reduced volumes at month-end.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for May 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to May 31, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for May 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to May 31, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for May 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Ринок відкрито: Apr 30, 2026, 3:15 PM ET
Обсяг
$305,766Дата завершення
May 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 30, 2026, 3:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for May 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to May 31, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for May 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing US and Israeli military actions against Iran since late February 2026 have triggered sustained restrictions on commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime chokepoint handling roughly 20 percent of global oil and LNG shipments. Iranian forces have asserted control via inspections, tolls, and threats of attack, while US Central Command maintains a blockade intercepting vessels linked to Iranian ports. Recent naval skirmishes and continued standoffs have kept daily transits at single-digit levels, well below the pre-conflict average of over 100 vessels. With these security risks and rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope persisting into late May, trader consensus assigns overwhelming probability to sharply reduced volumes at month-end.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for May 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to May 31, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for May 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to May 31, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for May 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Обсяг
$305,766Дата завершення
May 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 30, 2026, 3:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing US and Israeli military actions against Iran since late February 2026 have triggered sustained restrictions on commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime chokepoint handling roughly 20 percent of global oil and LNG shipments. Iranian forces have asserted control via inspections, tolls, and threats of attack, while US Central Command maintains a blockade intercepting vessels linked to Iranian ports. Recent naval skirmishes and continued standoffs have kept daily transits at single-digit levels, well below the pre-conflict average of over 100 vessels. With these security risks and rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope persisting into late May, trader consensus assigns overwhelming probability to sharply reduced volumes at month-end.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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