Democratic incumbent Derek Tran secured the top spot in California's June 2026 top-two primary for the 45th congressional district, advancing to the November general election against Republican Chuong Vo. Forecasters from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and others rate the seat Likely Democratic or Lean Democratic, consistent with the district's D+3 Partisan Voter Index and Tran's 2024 victory in the redrawn Orange County and Los Angeles area seat. The Democratic nominee's primary performance exceeding 53 percent, combined with a split Republican field, has reinforced trader consensus around an 88.5 percent implied probability for the Democratic Party. Limited campaign activity since the primary has kept the race stable, with no major shifts reported in fundraising or endorsements that would alter the competitive landscape ahead of the general election.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоCA-45 House Election Winner
CA-45 House Election Winner
$25,686 Обс.
$25,686 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
89%
Republican Party
12%
$25,686 Обс.
$25,686 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$13,885 Обс.
89%
Republican Party
$11,800 Обс.
12%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Derek Tran secured the top spot in California's June 2026 top-two primary for the 45th congressional district, advancing to the November general election against Republican Chuong Vo. Forecasters from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and others rate the seat Likely Democratic or Lean Democratic, consistent with the district's D+3 Partisan Voter Index and Tran's 2024 victory in the redrawn Orange County and Los Angeles area seat. The Democratic nominee's primary performance exceeding 53 percent, combined with a split Republican field, has reinforced trader consensus around an 88.5 percent implied probability for the Democratic Party. Limited campaign activity since the primary has kept the race stable, with no major shifts reported in fundraising or endorsements that would alter the competitive landscape ahead of the general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
Обсяг
$25,686Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Derek Tran secured the top spot in California's June 2026 top-two primary for the 45th congressional district, advancing to the November general election against Republican Chuong Vo. Forecasters from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and others rate the seat Likely Democratic or Lean Democratic, consistent with the district's D+3 Partisan Voter Index and Tran's 2024 victory in the redrawn Orange County and Los Angeles area seat. The Democratic nominee's primary performance exceeding 53 percent, combined with a split Republican field, has reinforced trader consensus around an 88.5 percent implied probability for the Democratic Party. Limited campaign activity since the primary has kept the race stable, with no major shifts reported in fundraising or endorsements that would alter the competitive landscape ahead of the general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$25,686Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Democratic incumbent Derek Tran secured the top spot in California's June 2026 top-two primary for the 45th congressional district, advancing to the November general election against Republican Chuong Vo. Forecasters from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and others rate the seat Likely Democratic or Lean Democratic, consistent with the district's D+3 Partisan Voter Index and Tran's 2024 victory in the redrawn Orange County and Los Angeles area seat. The Democratic nominee's primary performance exceeding 53 percent, combined with a split Republican field, has reinforced trader consensus around an 88.5 percent implied probability for the Democratic Party. Limited campaign activity since the primary has kept the race stable, with no major shifts reported in fundraising or endorsements that would alter the competitive landscape ahead of the general election.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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