Recent April 2026 consumer price index data showed a 1.2 percent year-over-year advance, exceeding consensus estimates of 0.9 percent and accelerating from March’s 1.0 percent print amid elevated energy costs and supply-chain effects from Middle East tensions. Producer prices simultaneously climbed 2.8 percent, the strongest reading in nearly four years. These releases have reinforced trader expectations that full-year average inflation will settle in the 1.1–1.5 percent band, now commanding the highest implied probability. Persistent weakness in domestic food and housing components continues to cap upside, while subdued core readings and soft consumer demand limit the scope for a sharper rebound. Market positioning remains anchored to the trajectory of global commodity prices and any further policy support from the People’s Bank of China ahead of the remaining 2026 data releases.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоChina Annual Inflation 2026
1.1 – 1.5% 50%
1.6 – 2.0% 42.8%
0.6 – 1.0% 24%
2.0-2.4% 13.4%
$40,817 Обс.
$40,817 Обс.
<-1.0%
<1%
-0.9 – -0.5%
<1%
-0.4 – 0.0%
<1%
0.1 – 0.5%
3%
0.6 – 1.0%
24%
1.1 – 1.5%
42%
1.6 – 2.0%
24%
2.0-2.4%
10%
2.5%+
9%
1.1 – 1.5% 50%
1.6 – 2.0% 42.8%
0.6 – 1.0% 24%
2.0-2.4% 13.4%
$40,817 Обс.
$40,817 Обс.
<-1.0%
<1%
-0.9 – -0.5%
<1%
-0.4 – 0.0%
<1%
0.1 – 0.5%
3%
0.6 – 1.0%
24%
1.1 – 1.5%
42%
1.6 – 2.0%
24%
2.0-2.4%
10%
2.5%+
9%
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Indexes in December 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/
Ринок відкрито: Jan 21, 2026, 7:27 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Indexes in December 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent April 2026 consumer price index data showed a 1.2 percent year-over-year advance, exceeding consensus estimates of 0.9 percent and accelerating from March’s 1.0 percent print amid elevated energy costs and supply-chain effects from Middle East tensions. Producer prices simultaneously climbed 2.8 percent, the strongest reading in nearly four years. These releases have reinforced trader expectations that full-year average inflation will settle in the 1.1–1.5 percent band, now commanding the highest implied probability. Persistent weakness in domestic food and housing components continues to cap upside, while subdued core readings and soft consumer demand limit the scope for a sharper rebound. Market positioning remains anchored to the trajectory of global commodity prices and any further policy support from the People’s Bank of China ahead of the remaining 2026 data releases.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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