Recent June core PCE data at 3.3% year-over-year, combined with consensus forecasts holding steady at that level for July, anchors trader positioning ahead of the August 26 release. July CPI prints showing headline inflation at 3.4% and core CPI easing to 2.5% reinforce expectations for limited monthly price pressure in the Fed's preferred gauge, particularly amid cooling shelter costs. Market-implied odds assign a 71.5% probability to 3.3% and 28.5% to 3.2%, reflecting the absence of strong disinflationary signals or upside surprises in recent labor and spending indicators. Stable economic conditions leave modest room for a downside print while keeping probabilities for outcomes below 3.2% or above 3.3% negligible.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено3.3% 72%
3.2% 28%
≤3.0% <1%
3.4% <1%
$37,552 Обс.
$37,552 Обс.
Aug 26, 2026
≤3.0%
<1%
3.1%
<1%
3.2%
28%
3.3%
72%
3.4%
<1%
3.5%
<1%
3.6%+
<1%
3.3% 72%
3.2% 28%
≤3.0% <1%
3.4% <1%
$37,552 Обс.
$37,552 Обс.
Aug 26, 2026
≤3.0%
$1,304 Обс.
<1%
3.1%
$1,226 Обс.
<1%
3.2%
$10,414 Обс.
28%
3.3%
$21,480 Обс.
72%
3.4%
$1,023 Обс.
<1%
3.5%
$942 Обс.
<1%
3.6%+
$1,163 Обс.
<1%
This is a market about percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending July 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for July 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent June core PCE data at 3.3% year-over-year, combined with consensus forecasts holding steady at that level for July, anchors trader positioning ahead of the August 26 release. July CPI prints showing headline inflation at 3.4% and core CPI easing to 2.5% reinforce expectations for limited monthly price pressure in the Fed's preferred gauge, particularly amid cooling shelter costs. Market-implied odds assign a 71.5% probability to 3.3% and 28.5% to 3.2%, reflecting the absence of strong disinflationary signals or upside surprises in recent labor and spending indicators. Stable economic conditions leave modest room for a downside print while keeping probabilities for outcomes below 3.2% or above 3.3% negligible.
This is a market about percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending July 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for July 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for July 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Ринок відкрито: Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Обсяг
$37,552Дата завершення
Aug 26, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending July 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for July 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent June core PCE data at 3.3% year-over-year, combined with consensus forecasts holding steady at that level for July, anchors trader positioning ahead of the August 26 release. July CPI prints showing headline inflation at 3.4% and core CPI easing to 2.5% reinforce expectations for limited monthly price pressure in the Fed's preferred gauge, particularly amid cooling shelter costs. Market-implied odds assign a 71.5% probability to 3.3% and 28.5% to 3.2%, reflecting the absence of strong disinflationary signals or upside surprises in recent labor and spending indicators. Stable economic conditions leave modest room for a downside print while keeping probabilities for outcomes below 3.2% or above 3.3% negligible.
This is a market about percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending July 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for July 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for July 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Обсяг
$37,552Дата завершення
Aug 26, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent June core PCE data at 3.3% year-over-year, combined with consensus forecasts holding steady at that level for July, anchors trader positioning ahead of the August 26 release. July CPI prints showing headline inflation at 3.4% and core CPI easing to 2.5% reinforce expectations for limited monthly price pressure in the Fed's preferred gauge, particularly amid cooling shelter costs. Market-implied odds assign a 71.5% probability to 3.3% and 28.5% to 3.2%, reflecting the absence of strong disinflationary signals or upside surprises in recent labor and spending indicators. Stable economic conditions leave modest room for a downside print while keeping probabilities for outcomes below 3.2% or above 3.3% negligible.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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