Rising inflation expectations driven by energy price spikes from the Iran conflict have pushed the ECB toward tighter policy in 2026, with recent staff projections now forecasting headline inflation averaging 2.6% this year. The Governing Council left its deposit rate unchanged at 2% after the April meeting but adopted a data-dependent stance that leaves room for adjustment if second-round effects materialize. Bloomberg and Reuters surveys of economists show a clear majority anticipating at least one 25-basis-point hike in June and another later in the year, aligning with market pricing of roughly 75 basis points of tightening over the next twelve months. Hawkish signals from several Governing Council members have reinforced the view that the bank will act to keep inflation on a path back to its 2% target, outweighing weaker growth readings.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоECB rate hike in 2026?
ECB rate hike in 2026?
$114,365 Обс.
$114,365 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
$114,365 Обс.
$114,365 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Rising inflation expectations driven by energy price spikes from the Iran conflict have pushed the ECB toward tighter policy in 2026, with recent staff projections now forecasting headline inflation averaging 2.6% this year. The Governing Council left its deposit rate unchanged at 2% after the April meeting but adopted a data-dependent stance that leaves room for adjustment if second-round effects materialize. Bloomberg and Reuters surveys of economists show a clear majority anticipating at least one 25-basis-point hike in June and another later in the year, aligning with market pricing of roughly 75 basis points of tightening over the next twelve months. Hawkish signals from several Governing Council members have reinforced the view that the bank will act to keep inflation on a path back to its 2% target, outweighing weaker growth readings.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ET
Обсяг
$114,365Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Rising inflation expectations driven by energy price spikes from the Iran conflict have pushed the ECB toward tighter policy in 2026, with recent staff projections now forecasting headline inflation averaging 2.6% this year. The Governing Council left its deposit rate unchanged at 2% after the April meeting but adopted a data-dependent stance that leaves room for adjustment if second-round effects materialize. Bloomberg and Reuters surveys of economists show a clear majority anticipating at least one 25-basis-point hike in June and another later in the year, aligning with market pricing of roughly 75 basis points of tightening over the next twelve months. Hawkish signals from several Governing Council members have reinforced the view that the bank will act to keep inflation on a path back to its 2% target, outweighing weaker growth readings.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$114,365Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Rising inflation expectations driven by energy price spikes from the Iran conflict have pushed the ECB toward tighter policy in 2026, with recent staff projections now forecasting headline inflation averaging 2.6% this year. The Governing Council left its deposit rate unchanged at 2% after the April meeting but adopted a data-dependent stance that leaves room for adjustment if second-round effects materialize. Bloomberg and Reuters surveys of economists show a clear majority anticipating at least one 25-basis-point hike in June and another later in the year, aligning with market pricing of roughly 75 basis points of tightening over the next twelve months. Hawkish signals from several Governing Council members have reinforced the view that the bank will act to keep inflation on a path back to its 2% target, outweighing weaker growth readings.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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