Polymarket traders overwhelmingly back Pause–Pause–Pause at 97.8% implied probability for the March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting confirmed pauses in the prior two sessions and near-certainty of no change at the June 16–17 gathering. This consensus stems from April's hotter-than-expected CPI surge to 3.8% year-over-year—up from 3.3%—fueled by energy price spikes amid the Iran conflict, alongside a resilient April nonfarm payrolls gain of 115,000 jobs exceeding forecasts. Major banks have delayed rate-cut projections into 2027, aligning with CME FedWatch's 98% odds for steady 3.50%–3.75% fed funds. Realistic challenges include a sharp May CPI cooldown below 3% or sub-100,000 payrolls signaling labor weakness ahead of the June decision.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоПауза–Пауза–Пауза 97.8%
Пауза–Пауза–Зниження 1.7%
Інше <1%
$1,103,070 Обс.
$1,103,070 Обс.
Jun 17, 2026
Пауза–Пауза–Пауза
98%
Пауза–Пауза–Зниження
2%
Інше
1%
Пауза–Пауза–Пауза 97.8%
Пауза–Пауза–Зниження 1.7%
Інше <1%
$1,103,070 Обс.
$1,103,070 Обс.
Jun 17, 2026
Пауза–Пауза–Пауза
$62,986 Обс.
98%
Пауза–Пауза–Зниження
$42,231 Обс.
2%
Інше
$252,512 Обс.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPolymarket traders overwhelmingly back Pause–Pause–Pause at 97.8% implied probability for the March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting confirmed pauses in the prior two sessions and near-certainty of no change at the June 16–17 gathering. This consensus stems from April's hotter-than-expected CPI surge to 3.8% year-over-year—up from 3.3%—fueled by energy price spikes amid the Iran conflict, alongside a resilient April nonfarm payrolls gain of 115,000 jobs exceeding forecasts. Major banks have delayed rate-cut projections into 2027, aligning with CME FedWatch's 98% odds for steady 3.50%–3.75% fed funds. Realistic challenges include a sharp May CPI cooldown below 3% or sub-100,000 payrolls signaling labor weakness ahead of the June decision.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Ринок відкрито: Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Обсяг
$1,103,070Дата завершення
Jun 17, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPolymarket traders overwhelmingly back Pause–Pause–Pause at 97.8% implied probability for the March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting confirmed pauses in the prior two sessions and near-certainty of no change at the June 16–17 gathering. This consensus stems from April's hotter-than-expected CPI surge to 3.8% year-over-year—up from 3.3%—fueled by energy price spikes amid the Iran conflict, alongside a resilient April nonfarm payrolls gain of 115,000 jobs exceeding forecasts. Major banks have delayed rate-cut projections into 2027, aligning with CME FedWatch's 98% odds for steady 3.50%–3.75% fed funds. Realistic challenges include a sharp May CPI cooldown below 3% or sub-100,000 payrolls signaling labor weakness ahead of the June decision.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Обсяг
$1,103,070Дата завершення
Jun 17, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders overwhelmingly back Pause–Pause–Pause at 97.8% implied probability for the March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting confirmed pauses in the prior two sessions and near-certainty of no change at the June 16–17 gathering. This consensus stems from April's hotter-than-expected CPI surge to 3.8% year-over-year—up from 3.3%—fueled by energy price spikes amid the Iran conflict, alongside a resilient April nonfarm payrolls gain of 115,000 jobs exceeding forecasts. Major banks have delayed rate-cut projections into 2027, aligning with CME FedWatch's 98% odds for steady 3.50%–3.75% fed funds. Realistic challenges include a sharp May CPI cooldown below 3% or sub-100,000 payrolls signaling labor weakness ahead of the June decision.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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