Elevated inflation readings and a resilient labor market have kept the Federal Reserve on hold, with the target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% following the April 28-29 FOMC meeting. March CPI accelerated to 3.3% year-over-year amid a sharp energy-index surge tied to geopolitical tensions, while core inflation held at 2.6%; April nonfarm payrolls added 115,000 jobs, leaving unemployment near 4.3% and wage growth at 3.6%. Market-implied odds from CME FedWatch now assign over 70% probability of no rate change through year-end 2026, reflecting trader consensus on delayed easing. The June 16-17 FOMC meeting, which includes updated economic projections, and the May CPI and employment releases stand as the next key catalysts that could shift policy expectations.