Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, with July CPI rising 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%, combined with a softer July jobs report showing payroll declines, has shifted market-implied odds toward a hold at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting rather than easing. The federal funds rate remains at 3.50–3.75% after the July decision, where three officials dissented in favor of a hike amid reaccelerating price pressures. Fed funds futures now price a higher likelihood of rate increases by year-end than cuts, reflecting trader consensus on sticky inflation and uncertain growth. Key upcoming catalysts include the September FOMC, August CPI and employment data, and any signals on the new policy path under Chair Warsh.