Elevated inflation near 3.4–3.5% year-over-year, driven by energy supply shocks amid U.S.-Iran tensions, has offset softening labor market signals and created the near-even 50.5% market-implied probability of at least one 25-basis-point federal funds rate hike in 2026. The FOMC held the target range at 3.50–3.75% through its July meeting despite three dissents favoring tightening, while June projections showed roughly half of participants expecting a higher year-end rate. Recent CPI moderation and a July employment report showing minimal payroll growth have tempered near-term hike odds, leaving futures pricing a gradual path toward 4% by year-end. Key upcoming catalysts include the September FOMC decision, August CPI and employment releases, and any escalation in geopolitical pressures that could shift the balance toward tighter monetary policy.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоТак
51% шанс
$7,644,993 Обс.
$7,644,993 Обс.
Dec 8, 2026
Так
51% шанс
$7,644,993 Обс.
$7,644,993 Обс.
Dec 8, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elevated inflation near 3.4–3.5% year-over-year, driven by energy supply shocks amid U.S.-Iran tensions, has offset softening labor market signals and created the near-even 50.5% market-implied probability of at least one 25-basis-point federal funds rate hike in 2026. The FOMC held the target range at 3.50–3.75% through its July meeting despite three dissents favoring tightening, while June projections showed roughly half of participants expecting a higher year-end rate. Recent CPI moderation and a July employment report showing minimal payroll growth have tempered near-term hike odds, leaving futures pricing a gradual path toward 4% by year-end. Key upcoming catalysts include the September FOMC decision, August CPI and employment releases, and any escalation in geopolitical pressures that could shift the balance toward tighter monetary policy.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Обсяг
$7,644,993Дата завершення
Dec 9, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elevated inflation near 3.4–3.5% year-over-year, driven by energy supply shocks amid U.S.-Iran tensions, has offset softening labor market signals and created the near-even 50.5% market-implied probability of at least one 25-basis-point federal funds rate hike in 2026. The FOMC held the target range at 3.50–3.75% through its July meeting despite three dissents favoring tightening, while June projections showed roughly half of participants expecting a higher year-end rate. Recent CPI moderation and a July employment report showing minimal payroll growth have tempered near-term hike odds, leaving futures pricing a gradual path toward 4% by year-end. Key upcoming catalysts include the September FOMC decision, August CPI and employment releases, and any escalation in geopolitical pressures that could shift the balance toward tighter monetary policy.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$7,644,993Дата завершення
Dec 9, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Elevated inflation near 3.4–3.5% year-over-year, driven by energy supply shocks amid U.S.-Iran tensions, has offset softening labor market signals and created the near-even 50.5% market-implied probability of at least one 25-basis-point federal funds rate hike in 2026. The FOMC held the target range at 3.50–3.75% through its July meeting despite three dissents favoring tightening, while June projections showed roughly half of participants expecting a higher year-end rate. Recent CPI moderation and a July employment report showing minimal payroll growth have tempered near-term hike odds, leaving futures pricing a gradual path toward 4% by year-end. Key upcoming catalysts include the September FOMC decision, August CPI and employment releases, and any escalation in geopolitical pressures that could shift the balance toward tighter monetary policy.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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