Recent hotter-than-expected inflation readings in May 2026 have lifted market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike later this year, yet trader consensus on Polymarket still prices a 68.5% chance that the federal funds rate stays within its current 3.50%-3.75% target range through year-end. The FOMC’s April 29 decision to hold rates steady, coupled with the March dot plot projecting at most one cut this year, continues to anchor expectations, even as resilient consumer spending and geopolitical pressures on energy prices push core PCE inflation above 3%. CME FedWatch futures now assign roughly a 45% probability to a 25-basis-point hike sometime in 2026, with the highest odds clustered around late-year meetings, while the June FOMC and upcoming CPI/PCE releases remain the next key catalysts that could either reinforce the hold or accelerate pricing for tightening.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоТак
$1,103,208 Обс.
$1,103,208 Обс.
Dec 9, 2026
Так
$1,103,208 Обс.
$1,103,208 Обс.
Dec 9, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent hotter-than-expected inflation readings in May 2026 have lifted market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike later this year, yet trader consensus on Polymarket still prices a 68.5% chance that the federal funds rate stays within its current 3.50%-3.75% target range through year-end. The FOMC’s April 29 decision to hold rates steady, coupled with the March dot plot projecting at most one cut this year, continues to anchor expectations, even as resilient consumer spending and geopolitical pressures on energy prices push core PCE inflation above 3%. CME FedWatch futures now assign roughly a 45% probability to a 25-basis-point hike sometime in 2026, with the highest odds clustered around late-year meetings, while the June FOMC and upcoming CPI/PCE releases remain the next key catalysts that could either reinforce the hold or accelerate pricing for tightening.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Обсяг
$1,103,208Дата завершення
Dec 9, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent hotter-than-expected inflation readings in May 2026 have lifted market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike later this year, yet trader consensus on Polymarket still prices a 68.5% chance that the federal funds rate stays within its current 3.50%-3.75% target range through year-end. The FOMC’s April 29 decision to hold rates steady, coupled with the March dot plot projecting at most one cut this year, continues to anchor expectations, even as resilient consumer spending and geopolitical pressures on energy prices push core PCE inflation above 3%. CME FedWatch futures now assign roughly a 45% probability to a 25-basis-point hike sometime in 2026, with the highest odds clustered around late-year meetings, while the June FOMC and upcoming CPI/PCE releases remain the next key catalysts that could either reinforce the hold or accelerate pricing for tightening.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$1,103,208Дата завершення
Dec 9, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent hotter-than-expected inflation readings in May 2026 have lifted market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike later this year, yet trader consensus on Polymarket still prices a 68.5% chance that the federal funds rate stays within its current 3.50%-3.75% target range through year-end. The FOMC’s April 29 decision to hold rates steady, coupled with the March dot plot projecting at most one cut this year, continues to anchor expectations, even as resilient consumer spending and geopolitical pressures on energy prices push core PCE inflation above 3%. CME FedWatch futures now assign roughly a 45% probability to a 25-basis-point hike sometime in 2026, with the highest odds clustered around late-year meetings, while the June FOMC and upcoming CPI/PCE releases remain the next key catalysts that could either reinforce the hold or accelerate pricing for tightening.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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