Ryan Elijah holds a 65% implied probability in the FL-07 House race because the open Central Florida seat leans Republican, and he secured the GOP nomination by defeating incumbent Cory Mills in the August 18 primary. Bale Dalton won his Democratic primary but trails in a district rated Likely Republican by multiple forecasters. Recent campaign activity centers on contrasting positions on taxes, health care costs, energy policy, and federal involvement in family medical decisions, with both candidates facing ethics complaints over financial disclosures. Dalton has emphasized his Navy service and anti-corruption plan, while Elijah has focused on voter outreach over debates. Early voting begins October 19 ahead of the November 3 general election, with mail ballots already returned in Seminole and Volusia counties.