Mexico City's subtropical highland climate at roughly 2,240 meters elevation, combined with peak August rainy-season dynamics, anchors daily maximum temperatures near 24–26°C. Afternoon cloud cover, scattered convection, and reduced solar insolation from the North American monsoon typically cap daytime heating despite summer timing, consistent with long-term August averages of 24–25°C. Current model guidance for August 20 points to a high around 24–25°C with late-day showers and overcast skies, supporting the market's heavy concentration on 25°C as the leading outcome while allowing modest probability for 24°C or 26°C depending on exact timing of cloud breaks or rainfall. No significant departures from climatology appear in recent observations or forecasts.