Forecast consensus from numerical models points to a daytime maximum near 30–31 °C for Tokyo on September 1, driven by the seasonal weakening of the subtropical Pacific high and increasing influence of maritime air. Partly cloudy skies and light northeasterly flow are expected to limit strong surface heating while maintaining dew points near 23–24 °C, moderating the diurnal range. Historical climatology shows early-September maxima averaging 28.7–30 °C, but recent model runs exhibit small spread around 29–32 °C depending on exact cloud timing and any residual moisture from upstream systems. This narrow range of uncertainty explains why market-implied probabilities cluster tightly on 30 °C and 31 °C, with traders weighting ensemble guidance and local mesoscale effects that can shift the recorded maximum by 1–2 °C.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Tokyo on September 1?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on September 1?
30°C 34%
31°C 29%
29°C 16%
32°C 9%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 1, 2026
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
3%
28°C
6%
29°C
16%
30°C
34%
31°C
29%
32°C
9%
33°C
5%
34°C
4%
35°C
1%
36°C or higher
1%
30°C 34%
31°C 29%
29°C 16%
32°C 9%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 1, 2026
26°C or below
$157 Обс.
<1%
27°C
$0 Обс.
3%
28°C
$75 Обс.
6%
29°C
$59 Обс.
16%
30°C
$106 Обс.
34%
31°C
$185 Обс.
29%
32°C
$175 Обс.
9%
33°C
$56 Обс.
5%
34°C
$58 Обс.
4%
35°C
$25 Обс.
1%
36°C or higher
$36 Обс.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast consensus from numerical models points to a daytime maximum near 30–31 °C for Tokyo on September 1, driven by the seasonal weakening of the subtropical Pacific high and increasing influence of maritime air. Partly cloudy skies and light northeasterly flow are expected to limit strong surface heating while maintaining dew points near 23–24 °C, moderating the diurnal range. Historical climatology shows early-September maxima averaging 28.7–30 °C, but recent model runs exhibit small spread around 29–32 °C depending on exact cloud timing and any residual moisture from upstream systems. This narrow range of uncertainty explains why market-implied probabilities cluster tightly on 30 °C and 31 °C, with traders weighting ensemble guidance and local mesoscale effects that can shift the recorded maximum by 1–2 °C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 30, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Обсяг
$933Дата завершення
Sep 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 30, 2026, 12:56 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast consensus from numerical models points to a daytime maximum near 30–31 °C for Tokyo on September 1, driven by the seasonal weakening of the subtropical Pacific high and increasing influence of maritime air. Partly cloudy skies and light northeasterly flow are expected to limit strong surface heating while maintaining dew points near 23–24 °C, moderating the diurnal range. Historical climatology shows early-September maxima averaging 28.7–30 °C, but recent model runs exhibit small spread around 29–32 °C depending on exact cloud timing and any residual moisture from upstream systems. This narrow range of uncertainty explains why market-implied probabilities cluster tightly on 30 °C and 31 °C, with traders weighting ensemble guidance and local mesoscale effects that can shift the recorded maximum by 1–2 °C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$933Дата завершення
Sep 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 30, 2026, 12:56 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Forecast consensus from numerical models points to a daytime maximum near 30–31 °C for Tokyo on September 1, driven by the seasonal weakening of the subtropical Pacific high and increasing influence of maritime air. Partly cloudy skies and light northeasterly flow are expected to limit strong surface heating while maintaining dew points near 23–24 °C, moderating the diurnal range. Historical climatology shows early-September maxima averaging 28.7–30 °C, but recent model runs exhibit small spread around 29–32 °C depending on exact cloud timing and any residual moisture from upstream systems. This narrow range of uncertainty explains why market-implied probabilities cluster tightly on 30 °C and 31 °C, with traders weighting ensemble guidance and local mesoscale effects that can shift the recorded maximum by 1–2 °C.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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