Iowa's 4th Congressional District, an open seat after incumbent Randy Feenstra's departure for the 2026 gubernatorial race, remains a Republican stronghold with an R+15 partisan lean and no Democratic representative since the 1970s. Trader consensus at 92% for the Republican Party reflects the GOP's unification behind Trump-endorsed Chris McGowan, who stands alone in the June 2 primary following rivals' withdrawals like Matt Windschitl, bolstered by superior fundraising ($379,000 cash on hand). Democrats face a fragmented three-way primary among Dave Dawson, Stephanie Steiner, and Ashley WolfTornabane with limited resources, underscoring structural barriers. Shifts could arise from primary upsets, nominee scandals, or a national Democratic wave, though historical double-digit GOP margins in the district signal formidable hurdles ahead of the November general election.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоIA-04 House Election Winner
IA-04 House Election Winner
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
92%
Democratic Party
8%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$4,946 Обс.
92%
Democratic Party
$4,946 Обс.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Iowa's 4th Congressional District, an open seat after incumbent Randy Feenstra's departure for the 2026 gubernatorial race, remains a Republican stronghold with an R+15 partisan lean and no Democratic representative since the 1970s. Trader consensus at 92% for the Republican Party reflects the GOP's unification behind Trump-endorsed Chris McGowan, who stands alone in the June 2 primary following rivals' withdrawals like Matt Windschitl, bolstered by superior fundraising ($379,000 cash on hand). Democrats face a fragmented three-way primary among Dave Dawson, Stephanie Steiner, and Ashley WolfTornabane with limited resources, underscoring structural barriers. Shifts could arise from primary upsets, nominee scandals, or a national Democratic wave, though historical double-digit GOP margins in the district signal formidable hurdles ahead of the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Обсяг
$9,892Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Iowa's 4th Congressional District, an open seat after incumbent Randy Feenstra's departure for the 2026 gubernatorial race, remains a Republican stronghold with an R+15 partisan lean and no Democratic representative since the 1970s. Trader consensus at 92% for the Republican Party reflects the GOP's unification behind Trump-endorsed Chris McGowan, who stands alone in the June 2 primary following rivals' withdrawals like Matt Windschitl, bolstered by superior fundraising ($379,000 cash on hand). Democrats face a fragmented three-way primary among Dave Dawson, Stephanie Steiner, and Ashley WolfTornabane with limited resources, underscoring structural barriers. Shifts could arise from primary upsets, nominee scandals, or a national Democratic wave, though historical double-digit GOP margins in the district signal formidable hurdles ahead of the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$9,892Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Iowa's 4th Congressional District, an open seat after incumbent Randy Feenstra's departure for the 2026 gubernatorial race, remains a Republican stronghold with an R+15 partisan lean and no Democratic representative since the 1970s. Trader consensus at 92% for the Republican Party reflects the GOP's unification behind Trump-endorsed Chris McGowan, who stands alone in the June 2 primary following rivals' withdrawals like Matt Windschitl, bolstered by superior fundraising ($379,000 cash on hand). Democrats face a fragmented three-way primary among Dave Dawson, Stephanie Steiner, and Ashley WolfTornabane with limited resources, underscoring structural barriers. Shifts could arise from primary upsets, nominee scandals, or a national Democratic wave, though historical double-digit GOP margins in the district signal formidable hurdles ahead of the November general election.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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