Recent developments in Iran center on the fragile post-succession environment after Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s death early in the 2026 conflict with the United States and Israel. Mojtaba Khamenei’s contested elevation, backed by IRGC elements under figures such as Ahmad Vahidi, has triggered hardliner warnings of factional plots involving President Masoud Pezeshkian and parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. Reports describe a “quiet coup” dynamic with the Revolutionary Guards consolidating influence over security and decision-making while sidelining clerical structures. Ongoing protests, executions, tightened internal controls, and disputes over U.S. negotiations and Strait of Hormuz access have heightened elite polarization. Traders price a coup attempt through year-end at low probability because the IRGC and security apparatus continue to maintain regime cohesion despite these rivalries.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено$2,115,813 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
December 31
12%
$2,115,813 Обс.
December 31
$74,587 Обс.
12%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent developments in Iran center on the fragile post-succession environment after Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s death early in the 2026 conflict with the United States and Israel. Mojtaba Khamenei’s contested elevation, backed by IRGC elements under figures such as Ahmad Vahidi, has triggered hardliner warnings of factional plots involving President Masoud Pezeshkian and parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. Reports describe a “quiet coup” dynamic with the Revolutionary Guards consolidating influence over security and decision-making while sidelining clerical structures. Ongoing protests, executions, tightened internal controls, and disputes over U.S. negotiations and Strait of Hormuz access have heightened elite polarization. Traders price a coup attempt through year-end at low probability because the IRGC and security apparatus continue to maintain regime cohesion despite these rivalries.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
Обсяг
$2,115,813Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent developments in Iran center on the fragile post-succession environment after Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s death early in the 2026 conflict with the United States and Israel. Mojtaba Khamenei’s contested elevation, backed by IRGC elements under figures such as Ahmad Vahidi, has triggered hardliner warnings of factional plots involving President Masoud Pezeshkian and parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. Reports describe a “quiet coup” dynamic with the Revolutionary Guards consolidating influence over security and decision-making while sidelining clerical structures. Ongoing protests, executions, tightened internal controls, and disputes over U.S. negotiations and Strait of Hormuz access have heightened elite polarization. Traders price a coup attempt through year-end at low probability because the IRGC and security apparatus continue to maintain regime cohesion despite these rivalries.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$2,115,813Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent developments in Iran center on the fragile post-succession environment after Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s death early in the 2026 conflict with the United States and Israel. Mojtaba Khamenei’s contested elevation, backed by IRGC elements under figures such as Ahmad Vahidi, has triggered hardliner warnings of factional plots involving President Masoud Pezeshkian and parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. Reports describe a “quiet coup” dynamic with the Revolutionary Guards consolidating influence over security and decision-making while sidelining clerical structures. Ongoing protests, executions, tightened internal controls, and disputes over U.S. negotiations and Strait of Hormuz access have heightened elite polarization. Traders price a coup attempt through year-end at low probability because the IRGC and security apparatus continue to maintain regime cohesion despite these rivalries.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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