Military strikes by the United States and Israel in June 2025 and February 2026 severely damaged Iran's key uranium enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, rendering them largely inoperable according to satellite assessments and IAEA reports. U.S. intelligence assessments from May 2026 indicate Iran remains roughly nine to twelve months from producing a nuclear weapon, with no evidence of resumed proliferation-sensitive activities or a structured weaponization program. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi has stated there is no indication of systematic efforts to build or test a device. These developments, combined with continued monitoring of unaffected sites and Iran's lack of concrete progress toward a testable nuclear device, underpin trader consensus that a nuclear test is unlikely before 2027.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоIran nuclear test before 2027?
Iran nuclear test before 2027?
$192,428 Обс.
$192,428 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
$192,428 Обс.
$192,428 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Military strikes by the United States and Israel in June 2025 and February 2026 severely damaged Iran's key uranium enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, rendering them largely inoperable according to satellite assessments and IAEA reports. U.S. intelligence assessments from May 2026 indicate Iran remains roughly nine to twelve months from producing a nuclear weapon, with no evidence of resumed proliferation-sensitive activities or a structured weaponization program. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi has stated there is no indication of systematic efforts to build or test a device. These developments, combined with continued monitoring of unaffected sites and Iran's lack of concrete progress toward a testable nuclear device, underpin trader consensus that a nuclear test is unlikely before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Обсяг
$192,428Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Military strikes by the United States and Israel in June 2025 and February 2026 severely damaged Iran's key uranium enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, rendering them largely inoperable according to satellite assessments and IAEA reports. U.S. intelligence assessments from May 2026 indicate Iran remains roughly nine to twelve months from producing a nuclear weapon, with no evidence of resumed proliferation-sensitive activities or a structured weaponization program. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi has stated there is no indication of systematic efforts to build or test a device. These developments, combined with continued monitoring of unaffected sites and Iran's lack of concrete progress toward a testable nuclear device, underpin trader consensus that a nuclear test is unlikely before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$192,428Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Military strikes by the United States and Israel in June 2025 and February 2026 severely damaged Iran's key uranium enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, rendering them largely inoperable according to satellite assessments and IAEA reports. U.S. intelligence assessments from May 2026 indicate Iran remains roughly nine to twelve months from producing a nuclear weapon, with no evidence of resumed proliferation-sensitive activities or a structured weaponization program. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi has stated there is no indication of systematic efforts to build or test a device. These developments, combined with continued monitoring of unaffected sites and Iran's lack of concrete progress toward a testable nuclear device, underpin trader consensus that a nuclear test is unlikely before 2027.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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