Recent U.S.-Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 targeted Iranian nuclear facilities including Natanz, causing confirmed damage and limiting enrichment capacity, while a bilateral memorandum reaffirmed Iran's commitment against nuclear weapons development. IAEA reports through mid-2026 note restricted access and no verified weaponization activities or major program resumption, with enriched uranium stockpiles largely inaccessible or unrecovered per Iranian statements. These verified setbacks, combined with sustained sanctions, diplomatic scrutiny, and monitoring, underpin trader consensus on low near-term test probability. Plausible shifts could still arise from undetected rapid reconstruction at remaining sites or escalatory policy reversals before year-end, though structural barriers and verification gaps constrain such outcomes.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоIran nuclear test before 2027?
Iran nuclear test before 2027?
5% шанс
$246,408 Обс.
$246,408 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
5% шанс
$246,408 Обс.
$246,408 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S.-Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 targeted Iranian nuclear facilities including Natanz, causing confirmed damage and limiting enrichment capacity, while a bilateral memorandum reaffirmed Iran's commitment against nuclear weapons development. IAEA reports through mid-2026 note restricted access and no verified weaponization activities or major program resumption, with enriched uranium stockpiles largely inaccessible or unrecovered per Iranian statements. These verified setbacks, combined with sustained sanctions, diplomatic scrutiny, and monitoring, underpin trader consensus on low near-term test probability. Plausible shifts could still arise from undetected rapid reconstruction at remaining sites or escalatory policy reversals before year-end, though structural barriers and verification gaps constrain such outcomes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Обсяг
$246,408Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S.-Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 targeted Iranian nuclear facilities including Natanz, causing confirmed damage and limiting enrichment capacity, while a bilateral memorandum reaffirmed Iran's commitment against nuclear weapons development. IAEA reports through mid-2026 note restricted access and no verified weaponization activities or major program resumption, with enriched uranium stockpiles largely inaccessible or unrecovered per Iranian statements. These verified setbacks, combined with sustained sanctions, diplomatic scrutiny, and monitoring, underpin trader consensus on low near-term test probability. Plausible shifts could still arise from undetected rapid reconstruction at remaining sites or escalatory policy reversals before year-end, though structural barriers and verification gaps constrain such outcomes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$246,408Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S.-Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 targeted Iranian nuclear facilities including Natanz, causing confirmed damage and limiting enrichment capacity, while a bilateral memorandum reaffirmed Iran's commitment against nuclear weapons development. IAEA reports through mid-2026 note restricted access and no verified weaponization activities or major program resumption, with enriched uranium stockpiles largely inaccessible or unrecovered per Iranian statements. These verified setbacks, combined with sustained sanctions, diplomatic scrutiny, and monitoring, underpin trader consensus on low near-term test probability. Plausible shifts could still arise from undetected rapid reconstruction at remaining sites or escalatory policy reversals before year-end, though structural barriers and verification gaps constrain such outcomes.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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