Recent attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in early July 2026, including missile strikes that damaged multiple tankers and cargo ships, represent the dominant driver of trader focus on this market. Those incidents triggered immediate U.S. military responses, contributed to sharply reduced transit volumes, and prompted warnings of further closure threats. Ongoing diplomatic efforts to stabilize the interim truce, combined with monitoring of IRGC statements and any new shipping incidents through August, continue to shape assessments of whether additional successful targeting occurs within relevant resolution windows. Historical patterns of intermittent Strait disruptions and current naval presence add context for probability evaluation.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоIran successfully targets shipping by...?
Iran successfully targets shipping by...?
НОВЕ
Aug 9, 2026
August 9
53%
August 16
68%
August 31
78%
September 30
89%
$8,574 Обс.
August 9
$2,913 Обс.
53%
August 16
$1,619 Обс.
68%
August 31
$1,715 Обс.
78%
September 30
$2,328 Обс.
89%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship between market creation, and the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to "No".Recent attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in early July 2026, including missile strikes that damaged multiple tankers and cargo ships, represent the dominant driver of trader focus on this market. Those incidents triggered immediate U.S. military responses, contributed to sharply reduced transit volumes, and prompted warnings of further closure threats. Ongoing diplomatic efforts to stabilize the interim truce, combined with monitoring of IRGC statements and any new shipping incidents through August, continue to shape assessments of whether additional successful targeting occurs within relevant resolution windows. Historical patterns of intermittent Strait disruptions and current naval presence add context for probability evaluation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship between market creation, and the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to "No".
Ринок відкрито: Aug 3, 2026, 4:24 PM ET
Обсяг
$8,574Дата завершення
Sep 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 3, 2026, 4:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship between market creation, and the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to "No".Recent attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in early July 2026, including missile strikes that damaged multiple tankers and cargo ships, represent the dominant driver of trader focus on this market. Those incidents triggered immediate U.S. military responses, contributed to sharply reduced transit volumes, and prompted warnings of further closure threats. Ongoing diplomatic efforts to stabilize the interim truce, combined with monitoring of IRGC statements and any new shipping incidents through August, continue to shape assessments of whether additional successful targeting occurs within relevant resolution windows. Historical patterns of intermittent Strait disruptions and current naval presence add context for probability evaluation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship between market creation, and the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to "No".
Обсяг
$8,574Дата завершення
Sep 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 3, 2026, 4:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in early July 2026, including missile strikes that damaged multiple tankers and cargo ships, represent the dominant driver of trader focus on this market. Those incidents triggered immediate U.S. military responses, contributed to sharply reduced transit volumes, and prompted warnings of further closure threats. Ongoing diplomatic efforts to stabilize the interim truce, combined with monitoring of IRGC statements and any new shipping incidents through August, continue to shape assessments of whether additional successful targeting occurs within relevant resolution windows. Historical patterns of intermittent Strait disruptions and current naval presence add context for probability evaluation.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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