Recent polling for the October 2026 Knesset election shows Amcha Yisrael, the new right-wing party led by former IDF Brig. Gen. Ofer Winter, consistently hovering near the 3.25% electoral threshold, with results fluctuating between roughly 2.1% and 4% across surveys from late August through early September. This volatility stems from the party's recent August launch, its competition for right-wing voters alongside Religious Zionism, Otzma Yehudit, and Likud, and the inherent sampling challenges for smaller parties in Israeli polls. Trader odds reflect this uncertainty, with the closest vote-share brackets trading within a few points of each other. Further late-campaign developments such as additional polling releases, candidate list finalization, or shifts in right-bloc alliances could widen or narrow its projected share before election day.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено3.25-4% 44%
<2.5% 40%
2.5-3.25% 39%
4-5% 39%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 30, 2026
<2.5%
40%
2.5-3.25%
39%
3.25-4%
44%
4-5%
39%
5%+
25%
3.25-4% 44%
<2.5% 40%
2.5-3.25% 39%
4-5% 39%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 30, 2026
<2.5%
$0 Обс.
40%
2.5-3.25%
$0 Обс.
39%
3.25-4%
$0 Обс.
44%
4-5%
$0 Обс.
39%
5%+
$0 Обс.
25%
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Recent polling for the October 2026 Knesset election shows Amcha Yisrael, the new right-wing party led by former IDF Brig. Gen. Ofer Winter, consistently hovering near the 3.25% electoral threshold, with results fluctuating between roughly 2.1% and 4% across surveys from late August through early September. This volatility stems from the party's recent August launch, its competition for right-wing voters alongside Religious Zionism, Otzma Yehudit, and Likud, and the inherent sampling challenges for smaller parties in Israeli polls. Trader odds reflect this uncertainty, with the closest vote-share brackets trading within a few points of each other. Further late-campaign developments such as additional polling releases, candidate list finalization, or shifts in right-bloc alliances could widen or narrow its projected share before election day.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Ринок відкрито: Sep 8, 2026, 4:26 PM ET
Обсяг
$0Дата завершення
Nov 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 8, 2026, 4:26 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/Вирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Recent polling for the October 2026 Knesset election shows Amcha Yisrael, the new right-wing party led by former IDF Brig. Gen. Ofer Winter, consistently hovering near the 3.25% electoral threshold, with results fluctuating between roughly 2.1% and 4% across surveys from late August through early September. This volatility stems from the party's recent August launch, its competition for right-wing voters alongside Religious Zionism, Otzma Yehudit, and Likud, and the inherent sampling challenges for smaller parties in Israeli polls. Trader odds reflect this uncertainty, with the closest vote-share brackets trading within a few points of each other. Further late-campaign developments such as additional polling releases, candidate list finalization, or shifts in right-bloc alliances could widen or narrow its projected share before election day.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Обсяг
$0Дата завершення
Nov 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 8, 2026, 4:26 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/Вирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling for the October 2026 Knesset election shows Amcha Yisrael, the new right-wing party led by former IDF Brig. Gen. Ofer Winter, consistently hovering near the 3.25% electoral threshold, with results fluctuating between roughly 2.1% and 4% across surveys from late August through early September. This volatility stems from the party's recent August launch, its competition for right-wing voters alongside Religious Zionism, Otzma Yehudit, and Likud, and the inherent sampling challenges for smaller parties in Israeli polls. Trader odds reflect this uncertainty, with the closest vote-share brackets trading within a few points of each other. Further late-campaign developments such as additional polling releases, candidate list finalization, or shifts in right-bloc alliances could widen or narrow its projected share before election day.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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