Recent U.S.-brokered talks produced a 45-day extension of the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire through late June 2026, with additional military and political discussions scheduled for late May and early June. Israel maintains a security buffer zone several kilometers inside southern Lebanon and conditions any full withdrawal on Hezbollah’s disarmament and redeployment north of the Litani River. Ongoing cross-border strikes and Israeli operations against Hezbollah infrastructure continue despite the truce, while Lebanese officials prioritize complete Israeli exit, prisoner releases, and reconstruction. These security and diplomatic hurdles, together with unresolved border issues and monitoring arrangements for UN Resolution 1701, keep trader assessments of an early withdrawal low amid the ongoing conflict.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by...?
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?
$1,543,458 Обс.
Jun 30, 2026
May 31
1%
June 30
7%
$1,543,458 Обс.
May 31
$1,237,290 Обс.
1%
June 30
$231,161 Обс.
7%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.Recent U.S.-brokered talks produced a 45-day extension of the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire through late June 2026, with additional military and political discussions scheduled for late May and early June. Israel maintains a security buffer zone several kilometers inside southern Lebanon and conditions any full withdrawal on Hezbollah’s disarmament and redeployment north of the Litani River. Ongoing cross-border strikes and Israeli operations against Hezbollah infrastructure continue despite the truce, while Lebanese officials prioritize complete Israeli exit, prisoner releases, and reconstruction. These security and diplomatic hurdles, together with unresolved border issues and monitoring arrangements for UN Resolution 1701, keep trader assessments of an early withdrawal low amid the ongoing conflict.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Apr 16, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
Обсяг
$1,543,458Дата завершення
Jun 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 16, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.Recent U.S.-brokered talks produced a 45-day extension of the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire through late June 2026, with additional military and political discussions scheduled for late May and early June. Israel maintains a security buffer zone several kilometers inside southern Lebanon and conditions any full withdrawal on Hezbollah’s disarmament and redeployment north of the Litani River. Ongoing cross-border strikes and Israeli operations against Hezbollah infrastructure continue despite the truce, while Lebanese officials prioritize complete Israeli exit, prisoner releases, and reconstruction. These security and diplomatic hurdles, together with unresolved border issues and monitoring arrangements for UN Resolution 1701, keep trader assessments of an early withdrawal low amid the ongoing conflict.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Обсяг
$1,543,458Дата завершення
Jun 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 16, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S.-brokered talks produced a 45-day extension of the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire through late June 2026, with additional military and political discussions scheduled for late May and early June. Israel maintains a security buffer zone several kilometers inside southern Lebanon and conditions any full withdrawal on Hezbollah’s disarmament and redeployment north of the Litani River. Ongoing cross-border strikes and Israeli operations against Hezbollah infrastructure continue despite the truce, while Lebanese officials prioritize complete Israeli exit, prisoner releases, and reconstruction. These security and diplomatic hurdles, together with unresolved border issues and monitoring arrangements for UN Resolution 1701, keep trader assessments of an early withdrawal low amid the ongoing conflict.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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