Ongoing US-Iran negotiations, mediated by Pakistan, center on ending the 2026 conflict that began with coordinated strikes in February and escalated through missile exchanges and a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. A fragile ceasefire has held since early April, with extensions allowing further talks, yet core gaps persist over Iran's nuclear enrichment, ballistic missile limits, support for regional proxies, and release of frozen assets. Israeli officials have stated that any lasting agreement requires removal of enriched uranium stockpiles and dismantlement of enrichment sites, while Iranian proposals emphasize ending all fronts of the war without those concessions. These unresolved issues, combined with reported preparations for renewed military action if talks collapse, continue to shape trader assessments of a permanent bilateral peace deal materializing in the near term.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоIsrael x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
$941,168 Обс.
May 31, 2026
May 31
3%
June 30
13%
$941,168 Обс.
May 31
$285,972 Обс.
3%
June 30
$340,581 Обс.
13%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing US-Iran negotiations, mediated by Pakistan, center on ending the 2026 conflict that began with coordinated strikes in February and escalated through missile exchanges and a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. A fragile ceasefire has held since early April, with extensions allowing further talks, yet core gaps persist over Iran's nuclear enrichment, ballistic missile limits, support for regional proxies, and release of frozen assets. Israeli officials have stated that any lasting agreement requires removal of enriched uranium stockpiles and dismantlement of enrichment sites, while Iranian proposals emphasize ending all fronts of the war without those concessions. These unresolved issues, combined with reported preparations for renewed military action if talks collapse, continue to shape trader assessments of a permanent bilateral peace deal materializing in the near term.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Apr 30, 2026, 3:51 PM ET
Обсяг
$941,168Дата завершення
May 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 30, 2026, 3:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing US-Iran negotiations, mediated by Pakistan, center on ending the 2026 conflict that began with coordinated strikes in February and escalated through missile exchanges and a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. A fragile ceasefire has held since early April, with extensions allowing further talks, yet core gaps persist over Iran's nuclear enrichment, ballistic missile limits, support for regional proxies, and release of frozen assets. Israeli officials have stated that any lasting agreement requires removal of enriched uranium stockpiles and dismantlement of enrichment sites, while Iranian proposals emphasize ending all fronts of the war without those concessions. These unresolved issues, combined with reported preparations for renewed military action if talks collapse, continue to shape trader assessments of a permanent bilateral peace deal materializing in the near term.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$941,168Дата завершення
May 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 30, 2026, 3:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing US-Iran negotiations, mediated by Pakistan, center on ending the 2026 conflict that began with coordinated strikes in February and escalated through missile exchanges and a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. A fragile ceasefire has held since early April, with extensions allowing further talks, yet core gaps persist over Iran's nuclear enrichment, ballistic missile limits, support for regional proxies, and release of frozen assets. Israeli officials have stated that any lasting agreement requires removal of enriched uranium stockpiles and dismantlement of enrichment sites, while Iranian proposals emphasize ending all fronts of the war without those concessions. These unresolved issues, combined with reported preparations for renewed military action if talks collapse, continue to shape trader assessments of a permanent bilateral peace deal materializing in the near term.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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