Incumbent Republican Ron Estes, seeking a sixth term in the deeply red Kansas 4th Congressional District (Cook PVI R+12), drives trader consensus at 84% for a GOP hold, bolstered by the district's 23-point Trump margin in 2024 and ratings as Solid or Safe Republican from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Estes faces no Republican primary challengers on August 4, while Democrats feature a crowded field including Katy Tyndell, Chris Carmichael, Cole Epley, Ryan Gilbert, and Jordan Mitchell, potentially splitting resources ahead of the June 1 filing deadline and November 3 general election. Absent polls or scandal, structural advantages like incumbency and partisan lean sustain elevated Republican probabilities.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоKS-04 House Election Winner
KS-04 House Election Winner
$31,233 Обс.
$31,233 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
84%
Democratic Party
14%
$31,233 Обс.
$31,233 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$18,560 Обс.
84%
Democratic Party
$12,673 Обс.
14%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KS-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Ron Estes, seeking a sixth term in the deeply red Kansas 4th Congressional District (Cook PVI R+12), drives trader consensus at 84% for a GOP hold, bolstered by the district's 23-point Trump margin in 2024 and ratings as Solid or Safe Republican from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Estes faces no Republican primary challengers on August 4, while Democrats feature a crowded field including Katy Tyndell, Chris Carmichael, Cole Epley, Ryan Gilbert, and Jordan Mitchell, potentially splitting resources ahead of the June 1 filing deadline and November 3 general election. Absent polls or scandal, structural advantages like incumbency and partisan lean sustain elevated Republican probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KS-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Обсяг
$31,233Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KS-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Ron Estes, seeking a sixth term in the deeply red Kansas 4th Congressional District (Cook PVI R+12), drives trader consensus at 84% for a GOP hold, bolstered by the district's 23-point Trump margin in 2024 and ratings as Solid or Safe Republican from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Estes faces no Republican primary challengers on August 4, while Democrats feature a crowded field including Katy Tyndell, Chris Carmichael, Cole Epley, Ryan Gilbert, and Jordan Mitchell, potentially splitting resources ahead of the June 1 filing deadline and November 3 general election. Absent polls or scandal, structural advantages like incumbency and partisan lean sustain elevated Republican probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KS-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$31,233Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Ron Estes, seeking a sixth term in the deeply red Kansas 4th Congressional District (Cook PVI R+12), drives trader consensus at 84% for a GOP hold, bolstered by the district's 23-point Trump margin in 2024 and ratings as Solid or Safe Republican from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Estes faces no Republican primary challengers on August 4, while Democrats feature a crowded field including Katy Tyndell, Chris Carmichael, Cole Epley, Ryan Gilbert, and Jordan Mitchell, potentially splitting resources ahead of the June 1 filing deadline and November 3 general election. Absent polls or scandal, structural advantages like incumbency and partisan lean sustain elevated Republican probabilities.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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