Taiwan's constitutional process for presidential impeachment requires a three-quarters supermajority in the opposition-controlled Legislative Yuan, a threshold the Kuomintang and Taiwan People's Party coalition currently lacks despite initiating proceedings in December 2025. The decisive roll-call vote scheduled for May 19 will almost certainly fall short, leaving no procedural path for removal before the June 30 cutoff. Ongoing hearings have highlighted partisan divisions but produced no shift in seat arithmetic or cross-party support. While late-stage defections or procedural delays remain theoretically possible, historical patterns and the slim opposition margin make any reversal before the deadline highly improbable, aligning with the 98 percent trader consensus reflected in current pricing.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLai Ching-te impeached by June 30?
Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30?
$618,927 Обс.
$618,927 Обс.
Jun 30, 2026
$618,927 Обс.
$618,927 Обс.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, is formally impeached by the Legislative Yuan by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.Taiwan's constitutional process for presidential impeachment requires a three-quarters supermajority in the opposition-controlled Legislative Yuan, a threshold the Kuomintang and Taiwan People's Party coalition currently lacks despite initiating proceedings in December 2025. The decisive roll-call vote scheduled for May 19 will almost certainly fall short, leaving no procedural path for removal before the June 30 cutoff. Ongoing hearings have highlighted partisan divisions but produced no shift in seat arithmetic or cross-party support. While late-stage defections or procedural delays remain theoretically possible, historical patterns and the slim opposition margin make any reversal before the deadline highly improbable, aligning with the 98 percent trader consensus reflected in current pricing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, is formally impeached by the Legislative Yuan by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Ринок відкрито: Jan 2, 2026, 8:15 AM ET
Обсяг
$618,927Дата завершення
Jun 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 2, 2026, 8:15 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, is formally impeached by the Legislative Yuan by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.Taiwan's constitutional process for presidential impeachment requires a three-quarters supermajority in the opposition-controlled Legislative Yuan, a threshold the Kuomintang and Taiwan People's Party coalition currently lacks despite initiating proceedings in December 2025. The decisive roll-call vote scheduled for May 19 will almost certainly fall short, leaving no procedural path for removal before the June 30 cutoff. Ongoing hearings have highlighted partisan divisions but produced no shift in seat arithmetic or cross-party support. While late-stage defections or procedural delays remain theoretically possible, historical patterns and the slim opposition margin make any reversal before the deadline highly improbable, aligning with the 98 percent trader consensus reflected in current pricing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, is formally impeached by the Legislative Yuan by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Обсяг
$618,927Дата завершення
Jun 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 2, 2026, 8:15 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Taiwan's constitutional process for presidential impeachment requires a three-quarters supermajority in the opposition-controlled Legislative Yuan, a threshold the Kuomintang and Taiwan People's Party coalition currently lacks despite initiating proceedings in December 2025. The decisive roll-call vote scheduled for May 19 will almost certainly fall short, leaving no procedural path for removal before the June 30 cutoff. Ongoing hearings have highlighted partisan divisions but produced no shift in seat arithmetic or cross-party support. While late-stage defections or procedural delays remain theoretically possible, historical patterns and the slim opposition margin make any reversal before the deadline highly improbable, aligning with the 98 percent trader consensus reflected in current pricing.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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