**Current forecasts from multiple global models point to an overnight low near 18°C for Beijing on September 15 under clear skies, light winds, and dry air, which supports the balanced market-implied odds around the 14–19°C range.** High pressure and radiative cooling overnight are the main drivers, with historical September averages near 16°C providing context for why traders assign meaningful probability to both cooler outliers and milder readings. Subtle differences in model depictions of boundary-layer moisture, minimum dew points, and wind speeds create the spread across bins, as small changes in these variables can shift the exact minimum by 1–2°C. Newer model runs and any late-day observations will likely refine these probabilities before resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLowest temperature in Beijing on September 15?
Lowest temperature in Beijing on September 15?
9°C or below 63%
19°C or higher 63%
14°C 40%
18°C 37%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 15, 2026
9°C or below
63%
10°C
9%
11°C
5%
12°C
22%
13°C
22%
14°C
31%
15°C
22%
16°C
21%
17°C
19%
18°C
37%
19°C or higher
63%
9°C or below 63%
19°C or higher 63%
14°C 40%
18°C 37%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 15, 2026
9°C or below
$10 Обс.
63%
10°C
$30 Обс.
9%
11°C
$0 Обс.
5%
12°C
$0 Обс.
22%
13°C
$0 Обс.
22%
14°C
$3 Обс.
31%
15°C
$0 Обс.
22%
16°C
$0 Обс.
21%
17°C
$50 Обс.
19%
18°C
$10 Обс.
37%
19°C or higher
$10 Обс.
63%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts from multiple global models point to an overnight low near 18°C for Beijing on September 15 under clear skies, light winds, and dry air, which supports the balanced market-implied odds around the 14–19°C range.**
High pressure and radiative cooling overnight are the main drivers, with historical September averages near 16°C providing context for why traders assign meaningful probability to both cooler outliers and milder readings. Subtle differences in model depictions of boundary-layer moisture, minimum dew points, and wind speeds create the spread across bins, as small changes in these variables can shift the exact minimum by 1–2°C. Newer model runs and any late-day observations will likely refine these probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 13, 2026, 1:31 PM ET
Обсяг
$113Дата завершення
Sep 15, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 13, 2026, 1:31 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts from multiple global models point to an overnight low near 18°C for Beijing on September 15 under clear skies, light winds, and dry air, which supports the balanced market-implied odds around the 14–19°C range.**
High pressure and radiative cooling overnight are the main drivers, with historical September averages near 16°C providing context for why traders assign meaningful probability to both cooler outliers and milder readings. Subtle differences in model depictions of boundary-layer moisture, minimum dew points, and wind speeds create the spread across bins, as small changes in these variables can shift the exact minimum by 1–2°C. Newer model runs and any late-day observations will likely refine these probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$113Дата завершення
Sep 15, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 13, 2026, 1:31 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...**Current forecasts from multiple global models point to an overnight low near 18°C for Beijing on September 15 under clear skies, light winds, and dry air, which supports the balanced market-implied odds around the 14–19°C range.** High pressure and radiative cooling overnight are the main drivers, with historical September averages near 16°C providing context for why traders assign meaningful probability to both cooler outliers and milder readings. Subtle differences in model depictions of boundary-layer moisture, minimum dew points, and wind speeds create the spread across bins, as small changes in these variables can shift the exact minimum by 1–2°C. Newer model runs and any late-day observations will likely refine these probabilities before resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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