The closely matched market-implied odds around 45% for both 18°C or higher and 8°C or below reflect substantial uncertainty in short-term forecasts for Cape Town's minimum temperature tomorrow. Key drivers include variable steering patterns from the South Atlantic high-pressure system and the potential for a cold front or berg wind influence, which can rapidly shift minimums by 5–10°C. Local topography in the Cape Town basin amplifies these effects through cold-air pooling or downslope warming, while model consensus from agencies like the South African Weather Service shows divergence on timing and intensity. New observational data and updated runs from global ensembles will likely clarify resolution thresholds before the day's close.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLowest temperature in Cape Town on September 19?
Lowest temperature in Cape Town on September 19?
18°C or higher 93%
8°C or below 91%
10°C 40%
9°C 39%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 19, 2026
8°C or below
91%
9°C
39%
10°C
40%
11°C
22%
12°C
21%
13°C
21%
14°C
39%
15°C
18%
16°C
2%
17°C
13%
18°C or higher
93%
18°C or higher 93%
8°C or below 91%
10°C 40%
9°C 39%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 19, 2026
8°C or below
$0 Обс.
91%
9°C
$0 Обс.
39%
10°C
$0 Обс.
40%
11°C
$0 Обс.
22%
12°C
$0 Обс.
21%
13°C
$0 Обс.
21%
14°C
$0 Обс.
39%
15°C
$0 Обс.
18%
16°C
$0 Обс.
2%
17°C
$0 Обс.
13%
18°C or higher
$0 Обс.
93%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The closely matched market-implied odds around 45% for both 18°C or higher and 8°C or below reflect substantial uncertainty in short-term forecasts for Cape Town's minimum temperature tomorrow. Key drivers include variable steering patterns from the South Atlantic high-pressure system and the potential for a cold front or berg wind influence, which can rapidly shift minimums by 5–10°C. Local topography in the Cape Town basin amplifies these effects through cold-air pooling or downslope warming, while model consensus from agencies like the South African Weather Service shows divergence on timing and intensity. New observational data and updated runs from global ensembles will likely clarify resolution thresholds before the day's close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 17, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Обсяг
$0Дата завершення
Sep 19, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 17, 2026, 12:31 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=factВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The closely matched market-implied odds around 45% for both 18°C or higher and 8°C or below reflect substantial uncertainty in short-term forecasts for Cape Town's minimum temperature tomorrow. Key drivers include variable steering patterns from the South Atlantic high-pressure system and the potential for a cold front or berg wind influence, which can rapidly shift minimums by 5–10°C. Local topography in the Cape Town basin amplifies these effects through cold-air pooling or downslope warming, while model consensus from agencies like the South African Weather Service shows divergence on timing and intensity. New observational data and updated runs from global ensembles will likely clarify resolution thresholds before the day's close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$0Дата завершення
Sep 19, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 17, 2026, 12:31 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=factВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...The closely matched market-implied odds around 45% for both 18°C or higher and 8°C or below reflect substantial uncertainty in short-term forecasts for Cape Town's minimum temperature tomorrow. Key drivers include variable steering patterns from the South Atlantic high-pressure system and the potential for a cold front or berg wind influence, which can rapidly shift minimums by 5–10°C. Local topography in the Cape Town basin amplifies these effects through cold-air pooling or downslope warming, while model consensus from agencies like the South African Weather Service shows divergence on timing and intensity. New observational data and updated runs from global ensembles will likely clarify resolution thresholds before the day's close.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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