Uncertainty in short-term forecast models is the main driver behind the closely matched 34.5% implied odds on a Dallas minimum of 69°F or below versus 88°F or higher for September 4. Early September climatology favors overnight lows in the mid-70s under typical southerly flow and high pressure, but a potential cold front or stronger northerly surge could enhance radiative cooling and push readings well below 70°F if timing aligns with clear skies and light winds. Conversely, persistent southerly winds, higher dew points, or delayed frontal passage would limit cooling and keep the low near or above 80°F. Model spreads in 48-hour temperature and boundary-layer forecasts create this bimodal trader consensus, with narrower bands like 74-77°F reflecting lower conviction until updated National Weather Service guidance resolves the steering pattern.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLowest temperature in Dallas on September 4?
Lowest temperature in Dallas on September 4?
69°F or below 69%
88°F or higher 69%
78-79°F 50%
74-75°F 49%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 4, 2026
69°F or below
69%
70-71°F
15%
72-73°F
24%
74-75°F
49%
76-77°F
26%
78-79°F
50%
80-81°F
49%
82-83°F
8%
84-85°F
8%
86-87°F
8%
88°F or higher
69%
69°F or below 69%
88°F or higher 69%
78-79°F 50%
74-75°F 49%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 4, 2026
69°F or below
$0 Обс.
69%
70-71°F
$0 Обс.
15%
72-73°F
$0 Обс.
24%
74-75°F
$0 Обс.
49%
76-77°F
$0 Обс.
26%
78-79°F
$0 Обс.
50%
80-81°F
$0 Обс.
49%
82-83°F
$0 Обс.
8%
84-85°F
$0 Обс.
8%
86-87°F
$0 Обс.
8%
88°F or higher
$0 Обс.
69%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Uncertainty in short-term forecast models is the main driver behind the closely matched 34.5% implied odds on a Dallas minimum of 69°F or below versus 88°F or higher for September 4. Early September climatology favors overnight lows in the mid-70s under typical southerly flow and high pressure, but a potential cold front or stronger northerly surge could enhance radiative cooling and push readings well below 70°F if timing aligns with clear skies and light winds. Conversely, persistent southerly winds, higher dew points, or delayed frontal passage would limit cooling and keep the low near or above 80°F. Model spreads in 48-hour temperature and boundary-layer forecasts create this bimodal trader consensus, with narrower bands like 74-77°F reflecting lower conviction until updated National Weather Service guidance resolves the steering pattern.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 2, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
Обсяг
$0Дата завершення
Sep 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 2, 2026, 3:29 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdalВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Uncertainty in short-term forecast models is the main driver behind the closely matched 34.5% implied odds on a Dallas minimum of 69°F or below versus 88°F or higher for September 4. Early September climatology favors overnight lows in the mid-70s under typical southerly flow and high pressure, but a potential cold front or stronger northerly surge could enhance radiative cooling and push readings well below 70°F if timing aligns with clear skies and light winds. Conversely, persistent southerly winds, higher dew points, or delayed frontal passage would limit cooling and keep the low near or above 80°F. Model spreads in 48-hour temperature and boundary-layer forecasts create this bimodal trader consensus, with narrower bands like 74-77°F reflecting lower conviction until updated National Weather Service guidance resolves the steering pattern.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$0Дата завершення
Sep 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 2, 2026, 3:29 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdalВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Uncertainty in short-term forecast models is the main driver behind the closely matched 34.5% implied odds on a Dallas minimum of 69°F or below versus 88°F or higher for September 4. Early September climatology favors overnight lows in the mid-70s under typical southerly flow and high pressure, but a potential cold front or stronger northerly surge could enhance radiative cooling and push readings well below 70°F if timing aligns with clear skies and light winds. Conversely, persistent southerly winds, higher dew points, or delayed frontal passage would limit cooling and keep the low near or above 80°F. Model spreads in 48-hour temperature and boundary-layer forecasts create this bimodal trader consensus, with narrower bands like 74-77°F reflecting lower conviction until updated National Weather Service guidance resolves the steering pattern.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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