Current forecasts from multiple models indicate Moscow's minimum temperature on September 1 will likely fall between 15–18°C, driven by southerly air advection maintaining above-normal warmth ahead of an approaching frontal system. Ensemble guidance shows modest spread due to uncertainty in overnight cloud cover, wind speeds, and exact timing of any cooling, which historically produces 2–4°C variability in early-September minima relative to the 1991–2020 baseline near 11°C. Traders assign substantial probability to both the warm tail (≥19°C) and cold tail (≤9°C) because small shifts in 850 hPa temperatures or boundary-layer mixing can push the daily minimum across those thresholds, while clustered mid-range outcomes reflect the narrow window of most-likely values from the latest GFS and ECMWF runs. Updated model guidance expected within the next 24–48 hours will likely narrow this distribution.