Recent forecast model runs from sources including GFS and ECMWF consensus point to a weak frontal system crossing southern Germany on August 25, 2026, with increased cloud cover, scattered showers, and light westerly winds that moderate overnight radiative cooling. This setup supports daily minimum temperatures clustering around 12–14 °C at Munich stations, as higher dew points and reduced clear-sky periods limit further drops. Subtle differences among ensemble members—such as exact frontal timing, boundary-layer mixing, and local orographic effects near the Alps—account for the tight spread between the leading 12 °C, 13 °C, and 14 °C outcomes in trader pricing, while probabilities for extremes below 10 °C or above 16 °C remain low given the absence of blocking patterns or strong advection. Updated model guidance and official DWD briefings expected within 48 hours will likely refine these ranges ahead of resolution.