Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS indicate a minimum temperature near 12–14 °C for Munich on September 1, aligning closely with the 1991–2020 climatological average low of 12.3 °C under partly cloudy conditions and light westerly flow. This consensus supports elevated market-implied odds for bins around 11–13 °C while leaving room for modest overnight cooling if radiational losses strengthen under clearer skies. The 44 % probability assigned to 9 °C or below reflects residual ensemble spread and the possibility of a sharper nocturnal drop, whereas the 29.5 % on 19 °C or higher captures the low but non-zero chance of warmer advection or delayed cloud cover. With resolution imminent, the next 24–48 hours of updated model runs and DWD observations will be decisive for final positioning.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLowest temperature in Munich on September 1?
Lowest temperature in Munich on September 1?
9°C or below 92%
10°C 49%
15°C 41%
14°C 40%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 1, 2026
9°C or below
92%
10°C
49%
11°C
27%
12°C
28%
13°C
27%
14°C
40%
15°C
41%
16°C
2%
17°C
38%
18°C
8%
19°C or higher
22%
9°C or below 92%
10°C 49%
15°C 41%
14°C 40%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 1, 2026
9°C or below
$0 Обс.
92%
10°C
$0 Обс.
49%
11°C
$0 Обс.
27%
12°C
$0 Обс.
28%
13°C
$0 Обс.
27%
14°C
$0 Обс.
40%
15°C
$0 Обс.
41%
16°C
$0 Обс.
2%
17°C
$0 Обс.
38%
18°C
$0 Обс.
8%
19°C or higher
$0 Обс.
22%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS indicate a minimum temperature near 12–14 °C for Munich on September 1, aligning closely with the 1991–2020 climatological average low of 12.3 °C under partly cloudy conditions and light westerly flow. This consensus supports elevated market-implied odds for bins around 11–13 °C while leaving room for modest overnight cooling if radiational losses strengthen under clearer skies. The 44 % probability assigned to 9 °C or below reflects residual ensemble spread and the possibility of a sharper nocturnal drop, whereas the 29.5 % on 19 °C or higher captures the low but non-zero chance of warmer advection or delayed cloud cover. With resolution imminent, the next 24–48 hours of updated model runs and DWD observations will be decisive for final positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 30, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Обсяг
$0Дата завершення
Sep 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 30, 2026, 12:29 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddmВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS indicate a minimum temperature near 12–14 °C for Munich on September 1, aligning closely with the 1991–2020 climatological average low of 12.3 °C under partly cloudy conditions and light westerly flow. This consensus supports elevated market-implied odds for bins around 11–13 °C while leaving room for modest overnight cooling if radiational losses strengthen under clearer skies. The 44 % probability assigned to 9 °C or below reflects residual ensemble spread and the possibility of a sharper nocturnal drop, whereas the 29.5 % on 19 °C or higher captures the low but non-zero chance of warmer advection or delayed cloud cover. With resolution imminent, the next 24–48 hours of updated model runs and DWD observations will be decisive for final positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$0Дата завершення
Sep 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 30, 2026, 12:29 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddmВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS indicate a minimum temperature near 12–14 °C for Munich on September 1, aligning closely with the 1991–2020 climatological average low of 12.3 °C under partly cloudy conditions and light westerly flow. This consensus supports elevated market-implied odds for bins around 11–13 °C while leaving room for modest overnight cooling if radiational losses strengthen under clearer skies. The 44 % probability assigned to 9 °C or below reflects residual ensemble spread and the possibility of a sharper nocturnal drop, whereas the 29.5 % on 19 °C or higher captures the low but non-zero chance of warmer advection or delayed cloud cover. With resolution imminent, the next 24–48 hours of updated model runs and DWD observations will be decisive for final positioning.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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