Recent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and other models indicate a minimum temperature in Tokyo on June 18 most likely near 19–21°C, with scattered showers, increased cloud cover, and light northeasterly winds moderating overnight radiative cooling. These conditions, typical of the early tsuyu transition period, reduce the diurnal temperature range and elevate the pre-dawn low compared to clearer nights. Ensemble guidance shows modest spread driven by variable shower timing and urban heat retention, keeping 20°C and 21°C nearly tied in trader probabilities. Updated model runs closer to resolution will refine whether the minimum settles at or above 20°C.