Recent short-range model guidance and ensemble spread place Istanbul’s June 18 maximum near 25–27 °C under weak high pressure and light northerly flow, yet sea-breeze advection from the Marmara and Bosphorus frequently caps observed highs 1–3 °C below inland guidance. This climatological moderation, combined with typical mid-June diurnal ranges and minor uncertainty in cloud cover or timing of any weak frontal passage, concentrates trader-implied probability on the 23–25 °C bins. With resolution less than 48 hours away, incremental updates from ECMWF or GFS runs on boundary-layer moisture and wind direction are the dominant near-term catalysts likely to shift the narrow 36 % lead of the 24 °C outcome.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Istanbul on June 18?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on June 18?
24°C 36%
23°C 32%
25°C 18%
26°C 13%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Jun 18, 2026
19°C or below
1%
20°C
1%
21°C
1%
22°C
9%
23°C
32%
24°C
36%
25°C
18%
26°C
13%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C or higher
<1%
24°C 36%
23°C 32%
25°C 18%
26°C 13%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Jun 18, 2026
19°C or below
$45 Обс.
1%
20°C
$145 Обс.
1%
21°C
$30 Обс.
1%
22°C
$0 Обс.
9%
23°C
$33 Обс.
32%
24°C
$81 Обс.
36%
25°C
$41 Обс.
18%
26°C
$0 Обс.
13%
27°C
$117 Обс.
<1%
28°C
$70 Обс.
<1%
29°C or higher
$235 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range model guidance and ensemble spread place Istanbul’s June 18 maximum near 25–27 °C under weak high pressure and light northerly flow, yet sea-breeze advection from the Marmara and Bosphorus frequently caps observed highs 1–3 °C below inland guidance. This climatological moderation, combined with typical mid-June diurnal ranges and minor uncertainty in cloud cover or timing of any weak frontal passage, concentrates trader-implied probability on the 23–25 °C bins. With resolution less than 48 hours away, incremental updates from ECMWF or GFS runs on boundary-layer moisture and wind direction are the dominant near-term catalysts likely to shift the narrow 36 % lead of the 24 °C outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Jun 16, 2026, 1:21 AM ET
Обсяг
$792Дата завершення
Jun 18, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jun 16, 2026, 1:21 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range model guidance and ensemble spread place Istanbul’s June 18 maximum near 25–27 °C under weak high pressure and light northerly flow, yet sea-breeze advection from the Marmara and Bosphorus frequently caps observed highs 1–3 °C below inland guidance. This climatological moderation, combined with typical mid-June diurnal ranges and minor uncertainty in cloud cover or timing of any weak frontal passage, concentrates trader-implied probability on the 23–25 °C bins. With resolution less than 48 hours away, incremental updates from ECMWF or GFS runs on boundary-layer moisture and wind direction are the dominant near-term catalysts likely to shift the narrow 36 % lead of the 24 °C outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$792Дата завершення
Jun 18, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jun 16, 2026, 1:21 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent short-range model guidance and ensemble spread place Istanbul’s June 18 maximum near 25–27 °C under weak high pressure and light northerly flow, yet sea-breeze advection from the Marmara and Bosphorus frequently caps observed highs 1–3 °C below inland guidance. This climatological moderation, combined with typical mid-June diurnal ranges and minor uncertainty in cloud cover or timing of any weak frontal passage, concentrates trader-implied probability on the 23–25 °C bins. With resolution less than 48 hours away, incremental updates from ECMWF or GFS runs on boundary-layer moisture and wind direction are the dominant near-term catalysts likely to shift the narrow 36 % lead of the 24 °C outcome.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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