**Forecast models for Wellington, New Zealand, on September 2, 2026, indicate an overnight minimum near 11–13 °C, with trader probabilities clustering tightly around 10–12 °C because of small differences in how models handle radiative cooling under strong northwest winds.** Wellington’s spring conditions feature brisk NW flows that limit nocturnal temperature drops by mixing the boundary layer, while partly cloudy skies allow some long-wave radiation loss. Official guidance from sources such as the Met Office currently points to a nighttime low of about 13 °C, whereas other ensembles and statistical analogs suggest values closer to 11–12 °C; the resulting spread keeps implied probabilities for 10 °C, 11 °C, and 12 °C nearly equal. Stronger-than-average winds or a modest increase in cloud cover could push the minimum a degree higher, whereas clearer skies and lighter winds would favor the lower end of the range. With resolution only hours away, any late-model run or observational update from New Zealand forecasters could quickly shift the tight market equilibrium.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLowest temperature in Wellington on September 2?
Lowest temperature in Wellington on September 2?
13°C 1%
7°C or below 0
8°C 0
9°C 0
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 2, 2026
7°C or below
-
8°C
-
9°C
-
10°C
-
11°C
-
12°C
-
13°C
1%
14°C
-
15°C
47%
16°C
41%
17°C or higher
42%
13°C 1%
7°C or below 0
8°C 0
9°C 0
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 2, 2026
7°C or below
$31 Обс.
-
8°C
$11 Обс.
-
9°C
$10 Обс.
-
10°C
$10 Обс.
-
11°C
$10 Обс.
-
12°C
$0 Обс.
-
13°C
$169 Обс.
1%
14°C
$5 Обс.
-
15°C
$10 Обс.
47%
16°C
$10 Обс.
41%
17°C or higher
$18 Обс.
42%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models for Wellington, New Zealand, on September 2, 2026, indicate an overnight minimum near 11–13 °C, with trader probabilities clustering tightly around 10–12 °C because of small differences in how models handle radiative cooling under strong northwest winds.**
Wellington’s spring conditions feature brisk NW flows that limit nocturnal temperature drops by mixing the boundary layer, while partly cloudy skies allow some long-wave radiation loss. Official guidance from sources such as the Met Office currently points to a nighttime low of about 13 °C, whereas other ensembles and statistical analogs suggest values closer to 11–12 °C; the resulting spread keeps implied probabilities for 10 °C, 11 °C, and 12 °C nearly equal. Stronger-than-average winds or a modest increase in cloud cover could push the minimum a degree higher, whereas clearer skies and lighter winds would favor the lower end of the range. With resolution only hours away, any late-model run or observational update from New Zealand forecasters could quickly shift the tight market equilibrium.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 31, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Обсяг
$285Дата завершення
Sep 2, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 31, 2026, 12:29 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models for Wellington, New Zealand, on September 2, 2026, indicate an overnight minimum near 11–13 °C, with trader probabilities clustering tightly around 10–12 °C because of small differences in how models handle radiative cooling under strong northwest winds.**
Wellington’s spring conditions feature brisk NW flows that limit nocturnal temperature drops by mixing the boundary layer, while partly cloudy skies allow some long-wave radiation loss. Official guidance from sources such as the Met Office currently points to a nighttime low of about 13 °C, whereas other ensembles and statistical analogs suggest values closer to 11–12 °C; the resulting spread keeps implied probabilities for 10 °C, 11 °C, and 12 °C nearly equal. Stronger-than-average winds or a modest increase in cloud cover could push the minimum a degree higher, whereas clearer skies and lighter winds would favor the lower end of the range. With resolution only hours away, any late-model run or observational update from New Zealand forecasters could quickly shift the tight market equilibrium.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$285Дата завершення
Sep 2, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 31, 2026, 12:29 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models for Wellington, New Zealand, on September 2, 2026, indicate an overnight minimum near 11–13 °C, with trader probabilities clustering tightly around 10–12 °C because of small differences in how models handle radiative cooling under strong northwest winds.** Wellington’s spring conditions feature brisk NW flows that limit nocturnal temperature drops by mixing the boundary layer, while partly cloudy skies allow some long-wave radiation loss. Official guidance from sources such as the Met Office currently points to a nighttime low of about 13 °C, whereas other ensembles and statistical analogs suggest values closer to 11–12 °C; the resulting spread keeps implied probabilities for 10 °C, 11 °C, and 12 °C nearly equal. Stronger-than-average winds or a modest increase in cloud cover could push the minimum a degree higher, whereas clearer skies and lighter winds would favor the lower end of the range. With resolution only hours away, any late-model run or observational update from New Zealand forecasters could quickly shift the tight market equilibrium.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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