Incumbent Rep. Mark Alford (R) dominates trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability for the MO-04 House seat, driven by the district's R+21 Cook PVI, his 71% victories in 2022 and 2024 generals, and unopposed 2024 Republican primary. Recent Missouri Supreme Court upholding of the GOP-favoring congressional map on May 12 solidifies boundaries favoring Republicans, with Alford holding $742,000 cash-on-hand post-March 31 filing deadline versus top Democrat Hartzell Gray's $27,000 amid a crowded eight-candidate Democratic primary set for August 4. Minimal GOP primary threats from Heather Shelton and Scott Vera reinforce his position, though a major scandal, health issue, or unforeseen national Democratic surge could shift odds before November 3.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоMO-04 House Election Winner
MO-04 House Election Winner
$30,403 Обс.
$30,403 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
94%
Democratic Party
7%
$30,403 Обс.
$30,403 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$16,483 Обс.
94%
Democratic Party
$13,920 Обс.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Mark Alford (R) dominates trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability for the MO-04 House seat, driven by the district's R+21 Cook PVI, his 71% victories in 2022 and 2024 generals, and unopposed 2024 Republican primary. Recent Missouri Supreme Court upholding of the GOP-favoring congressional map on May 12 solidifies boundaries favoring Republicans, with Alford holding $742,000 cash-on-hand post-March 31 filing deadline versus top Democrat Hartzell Gray's $27,000 amid a crowded eight-candidate Democratic primary set for August 4. Minimal GOP primary threats from Heather Shelton and Scott Vera reinforce his position, though a major scandal, health issue, or unforeseen national Democratic surge could shift odds before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Обсяг
$30,403Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Mark Alford (R) dominates trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability for the MO-04 House seat, driven by the district's R+21 Cook PVI, his 71% victories in 2022 and 2024 generals, and unopposed 2024 Republican primary. Recent Missouri Supreme Court upholding of the GOP-favoring congressional map on May 12 solidifies boundaries favoring Republicans, with Alford holding $742,000 cash-on-hand post-March 31 filing deadline versus top Democrat Hartzell Gray's $27,000 amid a crowded eight-candidate Democratic primary set for August 4. Minimal GOP primary threats from Heather Shelton and Scott Vera reinforce his position, though a major scandal, health issue, or unforeseen national Democratic surge could shift odds before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$30,403Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Mark Alford (R) dominates trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability for the MO-04 House seat, driven by the district's R+21 Cook PVI, his 71% victories in 2022 and 2024 generals, and unopposed 2024 Republican primary. Recent Missouri Supreme Court upholding of the GOP-favoring congressional map on May 12 solidifies boundaries favoring Republicans, with Alford holding $742,000 cash-on-hand post-March 31 filing deadline versus top Democrat Hartzell Gray's $27,000 amid a crowded eight-candidate Democratic primary set for August 4. Minimal GOP primary threats from Heather Shelton and Scott Vera reinforce his position, though a major scandal, health issue, or unforeseen national Democratic surge could shift odds before November 3.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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