Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 72.5% implied probability to "No" for a natural disaster in 2026, driven by the absence of any qualifying event through mid-May— no Category 5 hurricane U.S. landfall per National Hurricane Center records, no magnitude 8.5+ earthquake via U.S. Geological Survey data, no Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6 eruption according to the Global Volcanism Program, and no 10-kiloton+ meteor strike from NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies. These rare phenomena occur infrequently: U.S. Cat 5 landfalls average less than once per decade, M8.5+ quakes every 5–10 years globally, and VEI 6+ eruptions similarly sparse. Recent Colorado State University and NOAA outlooks forecast below-normal Atlantic hurricane activity amid neutral-to-weak El Niño conditions curbing rapid intensification, though seismic and volcanic risks remain unpredictable; monitor NHC seasonal updates starting June 1 and ongoing USGS feeds for potential shifts.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоNatural Disaster in 2026?
Natural Disaster in 2026?
$217,937 Обс.
$217,937 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
$217,937 Обс.
$217,937 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 72.5% implied probability to "No" for a natural disaster in 2026, driven by the absence of any qualifying event through mid-May— no Category 5 hurricane U.S. landfall per National Hurricane Center records, no magnitude 8.5+ earthquake via U.S. Geological Survey data, no Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6 eruption according to the Global Volcanism Program, and no 10-kiloton+ meteor strike from NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies. These rare phenomena occur infrequently: U.S. Cat 5 landfalls average less than once per decade, M8.5+ quakes every 5–10 years globally, and VEI 6+ eruptions similarly sparse. Recent Colorado State University and NOAA outlooks forecast below-normal Atlantic hurricane activity amid neutral-to-weak El Niño conditions curbing rapid intensification, though seismic and volcanic risks remain unpredictable; monitor NHC seasonal updates starting June 1 and ongoing USGS feeds for potential shifts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Ринок відкрито: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Обсяг
$217,937Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 72.5% implied probability to "No" for a natural disaster in 2026, driven by the absence of any qualifying event through mid-May— no Category 5 hurricane U.S. landfall per National Hurricane Center records, no magnitude 8.5+ earthquake via U.S. Geological Survey data, no Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6 eruption according to the Global Volcanism Program, and no 10-kiloton+ meteor strike from NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies. These rare phenomena occur infrequently: U.S. Cat 5 landfalls average less than once per decade, M8.5+ quakes every 5–10 years globally, and VEI 6+ eruptions similarly sparse. Recent Colorado State University and NOAA outlooks forecast below-normal Atlantic hurricane activity amid neutral-to-weak El Niño conditions curbing rapid intensification, though seismic and volcanic risks remain unpredictable; monitor NHC seasonal updates starting June 1 and ongoing USGS feeds for potential shifts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Обсяг
$218,211Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 72.5% implied probability to "No" for a natural disaster in 2026, driven by the absence of any qualifying event through mid-May— no Category 5 hurricane U.S. landfall per National Hurricane Center records, no magnitude 8.5+ earthquake via U.S. Geological Survey data, no Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6 eruption according to the Global Volcanism Program, and no 10-kiloton+ meteor strike from NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies. These rare phenomena occur infrequently: U.S. Cat 5 landfalls average less than once per decade, M8.5+ quakes every 5–10 years globally, and VEI 6+ eruptions similarly sparse. Recent Colorado State University and NOAA outlooks forecast below-normal Atlantic hurricane activity amid neutral-to-weak El Niño conditions curbing rapid intensification, though seismic and volcanic risks remain unpredictable; monitor NHC seasonal updates starting June 1 and ongoing USGS feeds for potential shifts.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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