No at 78.5% reflects the continued absence through late August 2026 of any Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor strike. NOAA and NHC data show suppressed Atlantic activity amid persistent wind shear and neutral-to-cool ENSO conditions, limiting intensification potential despite the peak season window ahead. USGS records confirm no qualifying seismic events since the lower-magnitude Venezuela quakes earlier in the year, while global volcanic monitoring reports no alerts approaching VEI 6 thresholds. These rare extremes occur infrequently even over full calendar years—historical baselines place annual odds of an 8.5+ quake or VEI 6 eruption well below 15%—and the remaining four months provide limited time for sudden shifts absent new model runs or observatory warnings. Trader consensus therefore centers on the low likelihood of any single criterion being met before December 31.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоNatural Disaster in 2026?
Natural Disaster in 2026?
22% шанс
$243,151 Обс.
$243,151 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
22% шанс
$243,151 Обс.
$243,151 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
No at 78.5% reflects the continued absence through late August 2026 of any Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor strike. NOAA and NHC data show suppressed Atlantic activity amid persistent wind shear and neutral-to-cool ENSO conditions, limiting intensification potential despite the peak season window ahead. USGS records confirm no qualifying seismic events since the lower-magnitude Venezuela quakes earlier in the year, while global volcanic monitoring reports no alerts approaching VEI 6 thresholds. These rare extremes occur infrequently even over full calendar years—historical baselines place annual odds of an 8.5+ quake or VEI 6 eruption well below 15%—and the remaining four months provide limited time for sudden shifts absent new model runs or observatory warnings. Trader consensus therefore centers on the low likelihood of any single criterion being met before December 31.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Ринок відкрито: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Обсяг
$243,151Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
No at 78.5% reflects the continued absence through late August 2026 of any Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor strike. NOAA and NHC data show suppressed Atlantic activity amid persistent wind shear and neutral-to-cool ENSO conditions, limiting intensification potential despite the peak season window ahead. USGS records confirm no qualifying seismic events since the lower-magnitude Venezuela quakes earlier in the year, while global volcanic monitoring reports no alerts approaching VEI 6 thresholds. These rare extremes occur infrequently even over full calendar years—historical baselines place annual odds of an 8.5+ quake or VEI 6 eruption well below 15%—and the remaining four months provide limited time for sudden shifts absent new model runs or observatory warnings. Trader consensus therefore centers on the low likelihood of any single criterion being met before December 31.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Обсяг
$243,151Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...No at 78.5% reflects the continued absence through late August 2026 of any Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor strike. NOAA and NHC data show suppressed Atlantic activity amid persistent wind shear and neutral-to-cool ENSO conditions, limiting intensification potential despite the peak season window ahead. USGS records confirm no qualifying seismic events since the lower-magnitude Venezuela quakes earlier in the year, while global volcanic monitoring reports no alerts approaching VEI 6 thresholds. These rare extremes occur infrequently even over full calendar years—historical baselines place annual odds of an 8.5+ quake or VEI 6 eruption well below 15%—and the remaining four months provide limited time for sudden shifts absent new model runs or observatory warnings. Trader consensus therefore centers on the low likelihood of any single criterion being met before December 31.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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