Incumbent Rep. Ritchie Torres (D) anchors trader consensus at 94.8% implied probability for the Democratic Party in the NY-15 House general election on November 3, 2026, reflecting the district's entrenched Democratic lean in the South Bronx, where Torres secured overwhelming victories in prior cycles amid minimal Republican infrastructure. Recent endorsements from former Speaker Nancy Pelosi in late March and CHC BOLD PAC have solidified his frontrunner status ahead of the June 23 Democratic primary against challengers like Michael Blake and progressive critics targeting his Israel stance. No credible GOP contender has emerged, per ratings like Cook Political Report's "Safe D." Upsets could arise from a primary scandal weakening the nominee, unforeseen national midterm dynamics, or late health/legal issues, though structural barriers keep Republican odds slim at 3.5%.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоNY-15 House Election Winner
NY-15 House Election Winner
$23,439 Обс.
$23,439 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
4%
$23,439 Обс.
$23,439 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$11,708 Обс.
95%
Republican Party
$11,731 Обс.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Ritchie Torres (D) anchors trader consensus at 94.8% implied probability for the Democratic Party in the NY-15 House general election on November 3, 2026, reflecting the district's entrenched Democratic lean in the South Bronx, where Torres secured overwhelming victories in prior cycles amid minimal Republican infrastructure. Recent endorsements from former Speaker Nancy Pelosi in late March and CHC BOLD PAC have solidified his frontrunner status ahead of the June 23 Democratic primary against challengers like Michael Blake and progressive critics targeting his Israel stance. No credible GOP contender has emerged, per ratings like Cook Political Report's "Safe D." Upsets could arise from a primary scandal weakening the nominee, unforeseen national midterm dynamics, or late health/legal issues, though structural barriers keep Republican odds slim at 3.5%.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Обсяг
$23,439Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Ritchie Torres (D) anchors trader consensus at 94.8% implied probability for the Democratic Party in the NY-15 House general election on November 3, 2026, reflecting the district's entrenched Democratic lean in the South Bronx, where Torres secured overwhelming victories in prior cycles amid minimal Republican infrastructure. Recent endorsements from former Speaker Nancy Pelosi in late March and CHC BOLD PAC have solidified his frontrunner status ahead of the June 23 Democratic primary against challengers like Michael Blake and progressive critics targeting his Israel stance. No credible GOP contender has emerged, per ratings like Cook Political Report's "Safe D." Upsets could arise from a primary scandal weakening the nominee, unforeseen national midterm dynamics, or late health/legal issues, though structural barriers keep Republican odds slim at 3.5%.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$23,439Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Ritchie Torres (D) anchors trader consensus at 94.8% implied probability for the Democratic Party in the NY-15 House general election on November 3, 2026, reflecting the district's entrenched Democratic lean in the South Bronx, where Torres secured overwhelming victories in prior cycles amid minimal Republican infrastructure. Recent endorsements from former Speaker Nancy Pelosi in late March and CHC BOLD PAC have solidified his frontrunner status ahead of the June 23 Democratic primary against challengers like Michael Blake and progressive critics targeting his Israel stance. No credible GOP contender has emerged, per ratings like Cook Political Report's "Safe D." Upsets could arise from a primary scandal weakening the nominee, unforeseen national midterm dynamics, or late health/legal issues, though structural barriers keep Republican odds slim at 3.5%.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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