Thailand and Cambodia maintain a fragile ceasefire along their disputed 817-kilometer border following deadly clashes in July and December 2025 that killed nearly 150 people and displaced hundreds of thousands. Thai and Cambodian leaders met on the sidelines of an ASEAN gathering in early May 2026 and agreed to pursue trust-building measures, including further foreign-minister talks, while troops remain deployed on both sides. Sporadic incidents, such as a January 2026 mortar exchange that wounded a Thai soldier, have tested the truce, yet both governments have emphasized de-escalation and border demarcation discussions. Military build-ups reported earlier in 2026 have not led to renewed major operations, and traders appear to weigh the risk of fresh Thai strikes against the diplomatic momentum and shared interest in avoiding escalation.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоThailand strikes Cambodia by...?
Thailand strikes Cambodia by...?
$69,402 Обс.
Jun 30, 2026
June 30, 2026
5%
$69,402 Обс.
June 30, 2026
$24,989 Обс.
5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Thailand initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Cambodian soil or any Cambodian embassy or consulate by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Thai military forces that impact Cambodian ground territory or any official Cambodian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Cambodian soil is hit by an Thailand missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the Thailand government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Cambodian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Thai ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If there is ambiguity as to whether a qualifying strike occurred, this market may remain open after resolution time for confirming evidence.Thailand and Cambodia maintain a fragile ceasefire along their disputed 817-kilometer border following deadly clashes in July and December 2025 that killed nearly 150 people and displaced hundreds of thousands. Thai and Cambodian leaders met on the sidelines of an ASEAN gathering in early May 2026 and agreed to pursue trust-building measures, including further foreign-minister talks, while troops remain deployed on both sides. Sporadic incidents, such as a January 2026 mortar exchange that wounded a Thai soldier, have tested the truce, yet both governments have emphasized de-escalation and border demarcation discussions. Military build-ups reported earlier in 2026 have not led to renewed major operations, and traders appear to weigh the risk of fresh Thai strikes against the diplomatic momentum and shared interest in avoiding escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Thailand initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Cambodian soil or any Cambodian embassy or consulate by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Thai military forces that impact Cambodian ground territory or any official Cambodian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Cambodian soil is hit by an Thailand missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the Thailand government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Cambodian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Thai ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If there is ambiguity as to whether a qualifying strike occurred, this market may remain open after resolution time for confirming evidence.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Thai military forces that impact Cambodian ground territory or any official Cambodian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Cambodian soil is hit by an Thailand missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the Thailand government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Cambodian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Thai ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If there is ambiguity as to whether a qualifying strike occurred, this market may remain open after resolution time for confirming evidence.
Ринок відкрито: Dec 29, 2025, 4:45 PM ET
Обсяг
$69,402Дата завершення
Jun 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 29, 2025, 4:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Thailand initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Cambodian soil or any Cambodian embassy or consulate by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Thai military forces that impact Cambodian ground territory or any official Cambodian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Cambodian soil is hit by an Thailand missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the Thailand government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Cambodian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Thai ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If there is ambiguity as to whether a qualifying strike occurred, this market may remain open after resolution time for confirming evidence.Thailand and Cambodia maintain a fragile ceasefire along their disputed 817-kilometer border following deadly clashes in July and December 2025 that killed nearly 150 people and displaced hundreds of thousands. Thai and Cambodian leaders met on the sidelines of an ASEAN gathering in early May 2026 and agreed to pursue trust-building measures, including further foreign-minister talks, while troops remain deployed on both sides. Sporadic incidents, such as a January 2026 mortar exchange that wounded a Thai soldier, have tested the truce, yet both governments have emphasized de-escalation and border demarcation discussions. Military build-ups reported earlier in 2026 have not led to renewed major operations, and traders appear to weigh the risk of fresh Thai strikes against the diplomatic momentum and shared interest in avoiding escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Thailand initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Cambodian soil or any Cambodian embassy or consulate by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Thai military forces that impact Cambodian ground territory or any official Cambodian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Cambodian soil is hit by an Thailand missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the Thailand government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Cambodian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Thai ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If there is ambiguity as to whether a qualifying strike occurred, this market may remain open after resolution time for confirming evidence.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Thai military forces that impact Cambodian ground territory or any official Cambodian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Cambodian soil is hit by an Thailand missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the Thailand government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Cambodian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Thai ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If there is ambiguity as to whether a qualifying strike occurred, this market may remain open after resolution time for confirming evidence.
Обсяг
$69,402Дата завершення
Jun 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 29, 2025, 4:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Thailand and Cambodia maintain a fragile ceasefire along their disputed 817-kilometer border following deadly clashes in July and December 2025 that killed nearly 150 people and displaced hundreds of thousands. Thai and Cambodian leaders met on the sidelines of an ASEAN gathering in early May 2026 and agreed to pursue trust-building measures, including further foreign-minister talks, while troops remain deployed on both sides. Sporadic incidents, such as a January 2026 mortar exchange that wounded a Thai soldier, have tested the truce, yet both governments have emphasized de-escalation and border demarcation discussions. Military build-ups reported earlier in 2026 have not led to renewed major operations, and traders appear to weigh the risk of fresh Thai strikes against the diplomatic momentum and shared interest in avoiding escalation.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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