Trump’s public references to the Strait of Hormuz as the “Strait of Trump,” including a late-April social-media map post amid ongoing naval tensions with Iran, have not been followed by any formal executive order, diplomatic initiative, or international maritime body process capable of changing the waterway’s established name. International law and longstanding U.S. practice treat such geographic designations as requiring coordinated action with coastal states and global navigation authorities rather than unilateral presidential statements. With the May 31 deadline approaching and no subsequent announcements or procedural steps reported, traders assign a 98.7 percent probability to “No.” The only developments that could still shift the outcome are an unanticipated official proclamation or executive directive issued in the final two weeks.