Traders assign a 98.3 percent probability that Tucker Carlson will not face federal charges by the June 30, 2026 resolution date because the Department of Justice has taken no action following his March 2026 public claims of an impending CIA criminal referral under the Foreign Agents Registration Act. Administration officials publicly dismissed those allegations as unfounded, with no grand jury proceedings, indictments, or confirmed investigations tied to Carlson’s reported communications with Iranian contacts amid U.S.-Middle East tensions. FARA prosecutions historically demand extensive evidence and prolonged timelines, factors absent here. While late disclosures, appointment of a special counsel, or sudden diplomatic escalations could theoretically reopen scrutiny, current evidentiary and procedural barriers continue to support the overwhelming market consensus against charges.