Turkish officials have discussed drafting a new civilian constitution since President Erdoğan’s 2025 appointment of a legal commission, linking the effort to the recent parliamentary approval of PKK-related peace process legislation and term-limit considerations ahead of 2028. However, the AKP-led bloc holds only 321–328 seats in the 600-member Grand National Assembly, short of the 360 votes needed to advance amendments to a public vote. Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş has expressed optimism for progress in 2026–2027, yet no draft has reached formal debate or scheduling as of mid-August 2026. With limited time remaining before year-end for coalition-building, legislative passage, and referendum procedures, traders assign an 86.5% implied probability against an official announcement occurring in 2026.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено14% шанс
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Dec 30, 2026
14% шанс
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Turkish officials have discussed drafting a new civilian constitution since President Erdoğan’s 2025 appointment of a legal commission, linking the effort to the recent parliamentary approval of PKK-related peace process legislation and term-limit considerations ahead of 2028. However, the AKP-led bloc holds only 321–328 seats in the 600-member Grand National Assembly, short of the 360 votes needed to advance amendments to a public vote. Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş has expressed optimism for progress in 2026–2027, yet no draft has reached formal debate or scheduling as of mid-August 2026. With limited time remaining before year-end for coalition-building, legislative passage, and referendum procedures, traders assign an 86.5% implied probability against an official announcement occurring in 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Mar 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ET
Обсяг
$6,734Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Mar 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Turkish officials have discussed drafting a new civilian constitution since President Erdoğan’s 2025 appointment of a legal commission, linking the effort to the recent parliamentary approval of PKK-related peace process legislation and term-limit considerations ahead of 2028. However, the AKP-led bloc holds only 321–328 seats in the 600-member Grand National Assembly, short of the 360 votes needed to advance amendments to a public vote. Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş has expressed optimism for progress in 2026–2027, yet no draft has reached formal debate or scheduling as of mid-August 2026. With limited time remaining before year-end for coalition-building, legislative passage, and referendum procedures, traders assign an 86.5% implied probability against an official announcement occurring in 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$6,734Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Mar 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Turkish officials have discussed drafting a new civilian constitution since President Erdoğan’s 2025 appointment of a legal commission, linking the effort to the recent parliamentary approval of PKK-related peace process legislation and term-limit considerations ahead of 2028. However, the AKP-led bloc holds only 321–328 seats in the 600-member Grand National Assembly, short of the 360 votes needed to advance amendments to a public vote. Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş has expressed optimism for progress in 2026–2027, yet no draft has reached formal debate or scheduling as of mid-August 2026. With limited time remaining before year-end for coalition-building, legislative passage, and referendum procedures, traders assign an 86.5% implied probability against an official announcement occurring in 2026.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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