**Traders assign a 96.2% probability that the United States will not fully evacuate its Beirut embassy by June 30, 2026, reflecting months of contained regional tensions without escalation to that threshold.** The embassy completed a partial drawdown of non-emergency personnel and family members in February 2026 amid Iran-related security reviews and military posturing, leaving core diplomatic staff in place to maintain operations. Subsequent State Department alerts through April 2026 urged American citizens to depart while commercial flights remained available and highlighted risks from cross-border strikes and instability in southern Lebanon, yet these measures stopped short of ordering a complete embassy closure or total staff withdrawal. No verified major military or diplomatic developments in the past 30 days have altered this posture, as the security environment has stayed volatile but within parameters allowing continued limited presence. The high market consensus stems from this established pattern of calibrated risk reduction rather than full abandonment. Realistic scenarios that could still shift the outcome before the deadline include a sudden, direct threat to embassy personnel, rapid escalation involving Hezbollah or broader regional conflict that closes Beirut airport and forces emergency extraction, or an official State Department announcement of ordered departure. Absent such triggers, the current staffing model is expected to hold.