**Ongoing U.S.-China trade consultations, including the May 2026 establishment of a U.S.-China Board of Trade and Board of Investment, have created structured channels for reciprocal tariff reductions on non-sensitive goods valued at $30 billion or more per side.** These mechanisms, combined with commitments from the 2025 Kuala Lumpur Joint Arrangement and subsequent summits, have sustained a tariff truce that caps replacement duties near 12.5% with an agreed ceiling around 20%. Additional steps such as expanded U.S. agricultural purchases, Boeing aircraft orders, and rare earth supply assurances reflect continued diplomatic momentum ahead of the one-year pause's November 2026 expiration. Recent executive actions extending suspensions and public signals of further talks reinforce trader expectations that a framework agreement or extension will be reached by year-end, though outcomes remain subject to negotiation details and any new Section 301 findings.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоUS x China tariff agreement by December 31?
US x China tariff agreement by December 31?
89% шанс
$224,519 Обс.
$224,519 Обс.
Dec 30, 2026
89% шанс
$224,519 Обс.
$224,519 Обс.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.**Ongoing U.S.-China trade consultations, including the May 2026 establishment of a U.S.-China Board of Trade and Board of Investment, have created structured channels for reciprocal tariff reductions on non-sensitive goods valued at $30 billion or more per side.** These mechanisms, combined with commitments from the 2025 Kuala Lumpur Joint Arrangement and subsequent summits, have sustained a tariff truce that caps replacement duties near 12.5% with an agreed ceiling around 20%. Additional steps such as expanded U.S. agricultural purchases, Boeing aircraft orders, and rare earth supply assurances reflect continued diplomatic momentum ahead of the one-year pause's November 2026 expiration. Recent executive actions extending suspensions and public signals of further talks reinforce trader expectations that a framework agreement or extension will be reached by year-end, though outcomes remain subject to negotiation details and any new Section 301 findings.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Ринок відкрито: May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ET
Обсяг
$224,519Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.**Ongoing U.S.-China trade consultations, including the May 2026 establishment of a U.S.-China Board of Trade and Board of Investment, have created structured channels for reciprocal tariff reductions on non-sensitive goods valued at $30 billion or more per side.** These mechanisms, combined with commitments from the 2025 Kuala Lumpur Joint Arrangement and subsequent summits, have sustained a tariff truce that caps replacement duties near 12.5% with an agreed ceiling around 20%. Additional steps such as expanded U.S. agricultural purchases, Boeing aircraft orders, and rare earth supply assurances reflect continued diplomatic momentum ahead of the one-year pause's November 2026 expiration. Recent executive actions extending suspensions and public signals of further talks reinforce trader expectations that a framework agreement or extension will be reached by year-end, though outcomes remain subject to negotiation details and any new Section 301 findings.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Обсяг
$224,519Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Ongoing U.S.-China trade consultations, including the May 2026 establishment of a U.S.-China Board of Trade and Board of Investment, have created structured channels for reciprocal tariff reductions on non-sensitive goods valued at $30 billion or more per side.** These mechanisms, combined with commitments from the 2025 Kuala Lumpur Joint Arrangement and subsequent summits, have sustained a tariff truce that caps replacement duties near 12.5% with an agreed ceiling around 20%. Additional steps such as expanded U.S. agricultural purchases, Boeing aircraft orders, and rare earth supply assurances reflect continued diplomatic momentum ahead of the one-year pause's November 2026 expiration. Recent executive actions extending suspensions and public signals of further talks reinforce trader expectations that a framework agreement or extension will be reached by year-end, though outcomes remain subject to negotiation details and any new Section 301 findings.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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