Anthropic’s dominant 89.5% market-implied probability reflects its latest large language model’s clear lead in independent benchmarks measuring style control, reasoning depth, and overall capability as the May resolution date approaches. Traders are weighting recent official releases and third-party evaluations showing consistent outperformance against competitors, reinforced by steady progress in training infrastructure and safety alignments that reduce the risk of last-minute slips. Google’s 6.5% share captures incremental Gemini updates that remain competitive on scale but have not closed the gap on specialized control features. OpenAI’s minimal 1.1% odds stem from extended timelines for its next frontier model and shifting internal priorities. With only days left, any new capability demonstration or benchmark release could still influence final settlement, though current verified results strongly underpin the prevailing trader consensus.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоWhich company has the #1 AI model end of May? (Style Control On)
Which company has the #1 AI model end of May? (Style Control On)
Anthropic 90%
Google 7%
OpenAI 1.1%
Alibaba <1%
$629,281 Обс.
$629,281 Обс.
May 31, 2026
Anthropic
90%
7%
OpenAI
1%
Alibaba
<1%
Meta
<1%
xAI
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Baidu
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Anthropic 90%
Google 7%
OpenAI 1.1%
Alibaba <1%
$629,281 Обс.
$629,281 Обс.
May 31, 2026
Anthropic
$59,160 Обс.
90%
$68,618 Обс.
7%
OpenAI
$37,876 Обс.
1%
Alibaba
$74,160 Обс.
<1%
Meta
$41,806 Обс.
<1%
xAI
$56,686 Обс.
<1%
Mistral
$25,554 Обс.
<1%
Meituan
$34,097 Обс.
<1%
ByteDance
$38,952 Обс.
<1%
Baidu
$39,087 Обс.
<1%
DeepSeek
$35,580 Обс.
<1%
Microsoft
$25,718 Обс.
<1%
Amazon
$29,179 Обс.
<1%
Moonshot
$29,960 Обс.
<1%
Z.ai
$32,847 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s dominant 89.5% market-implied probability reflects its latest large language model’s clear lead in independent benchmarks measuring style control, reasoning depth, and overall capability as the May resolution date approaches. Traders are weighting recent official releases and third-party evaluations showing consistent outperformance against competitors, reinforced by steady progress in training infrastructure and safety alignments that reduce the risk of last-minute slips. Google’s 6.5% share captures incremental Gemini updates that remain competitive on scale but have not closed the gap on specialized control features. OpenAI’s minimal 1.1% odds stem from extended timelines for its next frontier model and shifting internal priorities. With only days left, any new capability demonstration or benchmark release could still influence final settlement, though current verified results strongly underpin the prevailing trader consensus.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Ринок відкрито: Apr 14, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Обсяг
$629,281Дата завершення
May 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 14, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s dominant 89.5% market-implied probability reflects its latest large language model’s clear lead in independent benchmarks measuring style control, reasoning depth, and overall capability as the May resolution date approaches. Traders are weighting recent official releases and third-party evaluations showing consistent outperformance against competitors, reinforced by steady progress in training infrastructure and safety alignments that reduce the risk of last-minute slips. Google’s 6.5% share captures incremental Gemini updates that remain competitive on scale but have not closed the gap on specialized control features. OpenAI’s minimal 1.1% odds stem from extended timelines for its next frontier model and shifting internal priorities. With only days left, any new capability demonstration or benchmark release could still influence final settlement, though current verified results strongly underpin the prevailing trader consensus.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Обсяг
$629,281Дата завершення
May 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 14, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s dominant 89.5% market-implied probability reflects its latest large language model’s clear lead in independent benchmarks measuring style control, reasoning depth, and overall capability as the May resolution date approaches. Traders are weighting recent official releases and third-party evaluations showing consistent outperformance against competitors, reinforced by steady progress in training infrastructure and safety alignments that reduce the risk of last-minute slips. Google’s 6.5% share captures incremental Gemini updates that remain competitive on scale but have not closed the gap on specialized control features. OpenAI’s minimal 1.1% odds stem from extended timelines for its next frontier model and shifting internal priorities. With only days left, any new capability demonstration or benchmark release could still influence final settlement, though current verified results strongly underpin the prevailing trader consensus.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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