United Russia maintains its position as the frontrunner to secure the most seats in the September 2026 State Duma elections through incumbency advantages, control over single-mandate districts, and extensive administrative resources that have consistently delivered supermajorities in prior cycles. Recent party restructuring under Vladimir Yakushev and emphasis on war veterans and patriotic messaging in candidate lists reinforce this edge amid economic pressures. New People has gained ground in select VCIOM surveys by attracting younger and middle-class voters frustrated with restrictions and living costs, positioning it as a potential second-place contender that could siphon limited support. Other parties like LDPR and KPRF remain stable but trail in both polling and organizational reach, while the mixed electoral system and 5 percent threshold further consolidate outcomes around the leading two.