Recent cabinet turnover, including the exits of Kristi Noem, Pam Bondi, and Lori Chavez-DeRemer, has elevated expectations of further reshuffling in the Trump administration. Trader consensus places Tulsi Gabbard in the lead at 38 percent amid reports of White House pressure over intelligence assessments tied to the Iran conflict and deputy-level frictions. Howard Lutnick follows closely at 31 percent due to renewed congressional scrutiny of his Epstein connections and bipartisan calls for his departure. Chris Wright sits near 31 percent as energy prices fluctuate with ongoing foreign policy developments, despite official praise for his performance. The tight spread among these outcomes and the 25 percent chance of no exit before 2027 reflects uncertainty over timing, potential loyalty signals, and institutional pushback in Senate confirmation processes.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоTulsi Gabbard 38%
Howard Lutnick 31.9%
None before 2027 28%
Scott Bessent 13.9%
$11,675 Обс.
$11,675 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
Tulsi Gabbard
38%
Howard Lutnick
32%
None before 2027
28%
Scott Bessent
14%
Susie Wiles
23%
Marco Rubio
23%
Pete Hegseth
4%
Brooke Rollins
3%
John Ratcliffe
3%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
2%
J.D. Vance
2%
Russell T. Vought
2%
Scott Turner
1%
Mike Waltz
1%
Lee Zeldin
1%
Doug Burgum
1%
Doug Collins
1%
Linda McMahon
1%
Sean Duffy
<1%
Kelly Loeffler
<1%
Jamieson Greer
<1%
Chris Wright
30%
Tulsi Gabbard 38%
Howard Lutnick 31.9%
None before 2027 28%
Scott Bessent 13.9%
$11,675 Обс.
$11,675 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
Tulsi Gabbard
$3,210 Обс.
38%
Howard Lutnick
$2,009 Обс.
32%
None before 2027
$223 Обс.
28%
Scott Bessent
$233 Обс.
14%
Susie Wiles
$326 Обс.
23%
Marco Rubio
$294 Обс.
23%
Pete Hegseth
$628 Обс.
4%
Brooke Rollins
$218 Обс.
3%
John Ratcliffe
$259 Обс.
3%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
$333 Обс.
2%
J.D. Vance
$415 Обс.
2%
Russell T. Vought
$268 Обс.
2%
Scott Turner
$352 Обс.
1%
Mike Waltz
$270 Обс.
1%
Lee Zeldin
$294 Обс.
1%
Doug Burgum
$281 Обс.
1%
Doug Collins
$318 Обс.
1%
Linda McMahon
$321 Обс.
1%
Sean Duffy
$325 Обс.
<1%
Kelly Loeffler
$475 Обс.
<1%
Jamieson Greer
$233 Обс.
<1%
Chris Wright
$390 Обс.
30%
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Recent cabinet turnover, including the exits of Kristi Noem, Pam Bondi, and Lori Chavez-DeRemer, has elevated expectations of further reshuffling in the Trump administration. Trader consensus places Tulsi Gabbard in the lead at 38 percent amid reports of White House pressure over intelligence assessments tied to the Iran conflict and deputy-level frictions. Howard Lutnick follows closely at 31 percent due to renewed congressional scrutiny of his Epstein connections and bipartisan calls for his departure. Chris Wright sits near 31 percent as energy prices fluctuate with ongoing foreign policy developments, despite official praise for his performance. The tight spread among these outcomes and the 25 percent chance of no exit before 2027 reflects uncertainty over timing, potential loyalty signals, and institutional pushback in Senate confirmation processes.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Apr 20, 2026, 8:13 PM ET
Обсяг
$11,675Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 20, 2026, 8:13 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Recent cabinet turnover, including the exits of Kristi Noem, Pam Bondi, and Lori Chavez-DeRemer, has elevated expectations of further reshuffling in the Trump administration. Trader consensus places Tulsi Gabbard in the lead at 38 percent amid reports of White House pressure over intelligence assessments tied to the Iran conflict and deputy-level frictions. Howard Lutnick follows closely at 31 percent due to renewed congressional scrutiny of his Epstein connections and bipartisan calls for his departure. Chris Wright sits near 31 percent as energy prices fluctuate with ongoing foreign policy developments, despite official praise for his performance. The tight spread among these outcomes and the 25 percent chance of no exit before 2027 reflects uncertainty over timing, potential loyalty signals, and institutional pushback in Senate confirmation processes.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Обсяг
$11,675Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 20, 2026, 8:13 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent cabinet turnover, including the exits of Kristi Noem, Pam Bondi, and Lori Chavez-DeRemer, has elevated expectations of further reshuffling in the Trump administration. Trader consensus places Tulsi Gabbard in the lead at 38 percent amid reports of White House pressure over intelligence assessments tied to the Iran conflict and deputy-level frictions. Howard Lutnick follows closely at 31 percent due to renewed congressional scrutiny of his Epstein connections and bipartisan calls for his departure. Chris Wright sits near 31 percent as energy prices fluctuate with ongoing foreign policy developments, despite official praise for his performance. The tight spread among these outcomes and the 25 percent chance of no exit before 2027 reflects uncertainty over timing, potential loyalty signals, and institutional pushback in Senate confirmation processes.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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