Recent arrests such as that of Shamim Mafi in April for sanctions violations tied to Iranian arms brokering have not triggered new qualifying charges for acting as an Iranian government agent in espionage or covert operations. Ongoing U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations under the current administration have reduced expectations for immediate indictments, while earlier April actions against figures linked to plots remain the last major developments meeting typical criteria. With the May 31 deadline approaching, the 56% implied probability for a charge reflects trader assessments of ongoing investigations into potential intelligence activities balanced against the absence of fresh public announcements or escalations in the past month.