North Korea's pattern of ballistic missile tests, border incursions, and constitutional shifts designating South Korea as the primary adversary has sustained tensions without evidence of the troop mobilizations, logistics buildup, or command preparations required for a full-scale conventional invasion by late 2026. Traders assign a 97.2% probability to no invasion due to the robust U.S.-South Korea alliance, extended deterrence commitments, and North Korea's prioritization of nuclear and missile capabilities alongside potential diplomatic channels with Washington. Verifiable developments, including recent short-range launches from Wonsan and fortification work, align with signaling and deterrence rather than offensive readiness. Scenarios that could still shift odds include rapid escalation from miscalculation during drills, abrupt leadership changes, or unforeseen external triggers, though such outcomes remain low-probability within the narrow remaining timeframe.