Russian forces have conducted limited probing attacks east of Dobropillya near Novyi Donbas, a rural settlement in Donetsk Oblast's Pokrovsk Raion, as part of broader offensives in the Pokrovsk direction, but ISW assessments through mid-April report no confirmed advances into the settlement itself. Ukrainian defenses, bolstered by drone strikes on Russian infantry and armor, have stalled infiltrations in adjacent areas like Novopavlivka and Hryshyne. A brief May 9-11 ceasefire expired without territorial changes, amid Kremlin demands for Ukraine's full withdrawal from Donbas as a negotiation precondition. Traders monitor ISW maps for any capture of Novyi Donbas territory, with fluid frontline dynamics, logistics strains, and potential escalation risks defining near-term probabilities.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоWill Russia enter Novyi Donbas by...?
Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by...?
$140,020 Обс.
May 31, 2026
May 31
11%
June 30
31%
$140,020 Обс.
May 31
$30,277 Обс.
11%
June 30
$12,229 Обс.
31%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Novyi Donbas, Donetsk Oblast, (48.450718° N, 37.181238° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces have conducted limited probing attacks east of Dobropillya near Novyi Donbas, a rural settlement in Donetsk Oblast's Pokrovsk Raion, as part of broader offensives in the Pokrovsk direction, but ISW assessments through mid-April report no confirmed advances into the settlement itself. Ukrainian defenses, bolstered by drone strikes on Russian infantry and armor, have stalled infiltrations in adjacent areas like Novopavlivka and Hryshyne. A brief May 9-11 ceasefire expired without territorial changes, amid Kremlin demands for Ukraine's full withdrawal from Donbas as a negotiation precondition. Traders monitor ISW maps for any capture of Novyi Donbas territory, with fluid frontline dynamics, logistics strains, and potential escalation risks defining near-term probabilities.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Novyi Donbas, Donetsk Oblast, (48.450718° N, 37.181238° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Apr 22, 2026, 12:40 PM ET
Обсяг
$140,020Дата завершення
May 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 22, 2026, 12:40 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Novyi Donbas, Donetsk Oblast, (48.450718° N, 37.181238° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces have conducted limited probing attacks east of Dobropillya near Novyi Donbas, a rural settlement in Donetsk Oblast's Pokrovsk Raion, as part of broader offensives in the Pokrovsk direction, but ISW assessments through mid-April report no confirmed advances into the settlement itself. Ukrainian defenses, bolstered by drone strikes on Russian infantry and armor, have stalled infiltrations in adjacent areas like Novopavlivka and Hryshyne. A brief May 9-11 ceasefire expired without territorial changes, amid Kremlin demands for Ukraine's full withdrawal from Donbas as a negotiation precondition. Traders monitor ISW maps for any capture of Novyi Donbas territory, with fluid frontline dynamics, logistics strains, and potential escalation risks defining near-term probabilities.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Novyi Donbas, Donetsk Oblast, (48.450718° N, 37.181238° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Обсяг
$140,020Дата завершення
May 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 22, 2026, 12:40 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russian forces have conducted limited probing attacks east of Dobropillya near Novyi Donbas, a rural settlement in Donetsk Oblast's Pokrovsk Raion, as part of broader offensives in the Pokrovsk direction, but ISW assessments through mid-April report no confirmed advances into the settlement itself. Ukrainian defenses, bolstered by drone strikes on Russian infantry and armor, have stalled infiltrations in adjacent areas like Novopavlivka and Hryshyne. A brief May 9-11 ceasefire expired without territorial changes, amid Kremlin demands for Ukraine's full withdrawal from Donbas as a negotiation precondition. Traders monitor ISW maps for any capture of Novyi Donbas territory, with fluid frontline dynamics, logistics strains, and potential escalation risks defining near-term probabilities.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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