Traders assign a 98% probability against a U.S. invasion of Colombia in 2026 because bilateral ties have strengthened markedly under President Abelardo de la Espriella, who took office in August and promptly aligned with U.S. counter-narcotics priorities. Colombia joined the U.S.-led Shield of the Americas and authorized joint operations against cartels and designated terrorist groups, backed by proposed $1 billion in security assistance and high-level defense coordination. These steps build on decades of partnership, including Plan Colombia-era cooperation, with no territorial disputes, regime-change objectives, or active hostilities. Earlier frictions under the prior administration have eased following the leadership transition. Scenarios that could still alter the outlook remain narrow and would require abrupt reversals such as a collapse in the new security framework, major diplomatic rupture, or unforeseen escalation from ongoing joint counternarcotics missions.