Ukrainian forces have contested control of the village of Kolodiazi in Donetsk Oblast’s Lyman sector amid repeated Russian infantry assaults and infiltration attempts from multiple directions. Russian advances in the broader Dobropillia-Pokrovsk area during 2025 prompted Ukrainian counterattacks that recaptured nearby settlements including Zolotyi Kolodiaz, with Ukrainian units reporting stabilization of lines and destruction of Russian equipment. By September 2026, Ukrainian operations in adjacent sectors such as Oleksandrivka had yielded hundreds of square kilometers of territory and dozens of settlements, altering Russian logistics and timelines. Trader assessments of re-entry probabilities reflect the intensity of ongoing frontline fighting, Ukrainian defensive reinforcements, and the absence of major confirmed shifts around Kolodiazi itself in recent months. Scheduled military developments and any escalation or de-escalation signals on the Donbas axis remain the primary near-term catalysts.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоWill Ukraine re-enter Kolodiazi by...?
Will Ukraine re-enter Kolodiazi by...?
НОВЕ
Oct 31, 2026
October 31
79%
December 31
82%
$7,424 Обс.
October 31
$4,264 Обс.
79%
December 31
$3,159 Обс.
82%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory of Kolodiazi, Donetsk Oblast, (49.085881° N, 37.886668° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Ukrainian forces have contested control of the village of Kolodiazi in Donetsk Oblast’s Lyman sector amid repeated Russian infantry assaults and infiltration attempts from multiple directions. Russian advances in the broader Dobropillia-Pokrovsk area during 2025 prompted Ukrainian counterattacks that recaptured nearby settlements including Zolotyi Kolodiaz, with Ukrainian units reporting stabilization of lines and destruction of Russian equipment. By September 2026, Ukrainian operations in adjacent sectors such as Oleksandrivka had yielded hundreds of square kilometers of territory and dozens of settlements, altering Russian logistics and timelines. Trader assessments of re-entry probabilities reflect the intensity of ongoing frontline fighting, Ukrainian defensive reinforcements, and the absence of major confirmed shifts around Kolodiazi itself in recent months. Scheduled military developments and any escalation or de-escalation signals on the Donbas axis remain the primary near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory of Kolodiazi, Donetsk Oblast, (49.085881° N, 37.886668° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 7, 2026, 10:39 PM ET
Обсяг
$7,424Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Sep 7, 2026, 10:39 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory of Kolodiazi, Donetsk Oblast, (49.085881° N, 37.886668° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Ukrainian forces have contested control of the village of Kolodiazi in Donetsk Oblast’s Lyman sector amid repeated Russian infantry assaults and infiltration attempts from multiple directions. Russian advances in the broader Dobropillia-Pokrovsk area during 2025 prompted Ukrainian counterattacks that recaptured nearby settlements including Zolotyi Kolodiaz, with Ukrainian units reporting stabilization of lines and destruction of Russian equipment. By September 2026, Ukrainian operations in adjacent sectors such as Oleksandrivka had yielded hundreds of square kilometers of territory and dozens of settlements, altering Russian logistics and timelines. Trader assessments of re-entry probabilities reflect the intensity of ongoing frontline fighting, Ukrainian defensive reinforcements, and the absence of major confirmed shifts around Kolodiazi itself in recent months. Scheduled military developments and any escalation or de-escalation signals on the Donbas axis remain the primary near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory of Kolodiazi, Donetsk Oblast, (49.085881° N, 37.886668° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Обсяг
$7,424Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Sep 7, 2026, 10:39 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...Ukrainian forces have contested control of the village of Kolodiazi in Donetsk Oblast’s Lyman sector amid repeated Russian infantry assaults and infiltration attempts from multiple directions. Russian advances in the broader Dobropillia-Pokrovsk area during 2025 prompted Ukrainian counterattacks that recaptured nearby settlements including Zolotyi Kolodiaz, with Ukrainian units reporting stabilization of lines and destruction of Russian equipment. By September 2026, Ukrainian operations in adjacent sectors such as Oleksandrivka had yielded hundreds of square kilometers of territory and dozens of settlements, altering Russian logistics and timelines. Trader assessments of re-entry probabilities reflect the intensity of ongoing frontline fighting, Ukrainian defensive reinforcements, and the absence of major confirmed shifts around Kolodiazi itself in recent months. Scheduled military developments and any escalation or de-escalation signals on the Donbas axis remain the primary near-term catalysts.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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