With Andalusian regional elections set for May 17, trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 58% probability against the Popular Party (PP) achieving an absolute majority of 55+ seats in the 109-seat Parliament, driven by recent polls showing incumbent President Juanma Moreno's PP leading at 41-44% but hovering at 53-58 seats. Final surveys from May 11, including NC Report and Sigma Dos, project PP doubling PSOE's projected 27-28 seats amid the Socialists' historic decline to 22-24%, while Vox holds steady at 13-17% (15-19 seats), fragmenting the right-wing vote and creating uncertainty over the final escaños. No major catalysts emerged in the past 48 hours, leaving the outcome hinging on turnout and undecided voters in this closely contested race for solo governance.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtAndalusia Election: PP Absolute Majority?
Andalusia Election: PP Absolute Majority?
MỚI
MỚI
May 17, 2026
MỚI
MỚI
May 17, 2026
Elections for the autonomous community of Andalusia’s unicameral parliament are scheduled for May 17, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Partido Popular (PP) wins at least 55 seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Partido Popular.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).With Andalusian regional elections set for May 17, trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 58% probability against the Popular Party (PP) achieving an absolute majority of 55+ seats in the 109-seat Parliament, driven by recent polls showing incumbent President Juanma Moreno's PP leading at 41-44% but hovering at 53-58 seats. Final surveys from May 11, including NC Report and Sigma Dos, project PP doubling PSOE's projected 27-28 seats amid the Socialists' historic decline to 22-24%, while Vox holds steady at 13-17% (15-19 seats), fragmenting the right-wing vote and creating uncertainty over the final escaños. No major catalysts emerged in the past 48 hours, leaving the outcome hinging on turnout and undecided voters in this closely contested race for solo governance.
Elections for the autonomous community of Andalusia’s unicameral parliament are scheduled for May 17, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Partido Popular (PP) wins at least 55 seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Partido Popular.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Partido Popular (PP) wins at least 55 seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Partido Popular.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).
Thị trường mở: Apr 16, 2026, 7:39 PM ET
Khối lượng
$3,317Ngày kết thúc
May 17, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 16, 2026, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Elections for the autonomous community of Andalusia’s unicameral parliament are scheduled for May 17, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Partido Popular (PP) wins at least 55 seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Partido Popular.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).With Andalusian regional elections set for May 17, trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 58% probability against the Popular Party (PP) achieving an absolute majority of 55+ seats in the 109-seat Parliament, driven by recent polls showing incumbent President Juanma Moreno's PP leading at 41-44% but hovering at 53-58 seats. Final surveys from May 11, including NC Report and Sigma Dos, project PP doubling PSOE's projected 27-28 seats amid the Socialists' historic decline to 22-24%, while Vox holds steady at 13-17% (15-19 seats), fragmenting the right-wing vote and creating uncertainty over the final escaños. No major catalysts emerged in the past 48 hours, leaving the outcome hinging on turnout and undecided voters in this closely contested race for solo governance.
Elections for the autonomous community of Andalusia’s unicameral parliament are scheduled for May 17, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Partido Popular (PP) wins at least 55 seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Partido Popular.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Partido Popular (PP) wins at least 55 seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Partido Popular.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).
Khối lượng
$3,317Ngày kết thúc
May 17, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 16, 2026, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...With Andalusian regional elections set for May 17, trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 58% probability against the Popular Party (PP) achieving an absolute majority of 55+ seats in the 109-seat Parliament, driven by recent polls showing incumbent President Juanma Moreno's PP leading at 41-44% but hovering at 53-58 seats. Final surveys from May 11, including NC Report and Sigma Dos, project PP doubling PSOE's projected 27-28 seats amid the Socialists' historic decline to 22-24%, while Vox holds steady at 13-17% (15-19 seats), fragmenting the right-wing vote and creating uncertainty over the final escaños. No major catalysts emerged in the past 48 hours, leaving the outcome hinging on turnout and undecided voters in this closely contested race for solo governance.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp