Renewed Houthi naval blockade targeting Saudi-linked vessels, announced in July 2026 amid the U.S.-Iran conflict, combined with fresh missile strikes in early August, has driven the sharp contraction in Bab el-Mandeb traffic that underpins the 44.8% implied probability for fewer than 25 daily transits. Shipping data from Kpler and Clarksons show averages stabilizing near 31–32 vessels per day in late July and early August—roughly 50% below prior suppressed levels—as tankers reroute around the Cape of Good Hope to avoid risk premiums and attacks. Elevated insurance costs and limited near-term de-escalation catalysts sustain trader consensus for subdued volumes through month-end, with the 25–29 bin capturing residual stabilization scenarios.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtAvg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of August?
Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of August?
<25 44.8%
25-29 27%
30-34 20%
35-39 6%
$14,964 KL.
$14,964 KL.
Aug 31, 2026
<25
45%
25-29
27%
30-34
20%
35-39
6%
40+
2%
<25 44.8%
25-29 27%
30-34 20%
35-39 6%
$14,964 KL.
$14,964 KL.
Aug 31, 2026
<25
$2,915 KL.
45%
25-29
$3,493 KL.
27%
30-34
$3,754 KL.
20%
35-39
$1,063 KL.
6%
40+
$3,738 KL.
2%
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Renewed Houthi naval blockade targeting Saudi-linked vessels, announced in July 2026 amid the U.S.-Iran conflict, combined with fresh missile strikes in early August, has driven the sharp contraction in Bab el-Mandeb traffic that underpins the 44.8% implied probability for fewer than 25 daily transits. Shipping data from Kpler and Clarksons show averages stabilizing near 31–32 vessels per day in late July and early August—roughly 50% below prior suppressed levels—as tankers reroute around the Cape of Good Hope to avoid risk premiums and attacks. Elevated insurance costs and limited near-term de-escalation catalysts sustain trader consensus for subdued volumes through month-end, with the 25–29 bin capturing residual stabilization scenarios.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Thị trường mở: Jul 31, 2026, 2:13 PM ET
Khối lượng
$14,964Ngày kết thúc
Aug 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 31, 2026, 2:13 PM ETNguồn giải quyết
IMF PortWatchResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Renewed Houthi naval blockade targeting Saudi-linked vessels, announced in July 2026 amid the U.S.-Iran conflict, combined with fresh missile strikes in early August, has driven the sharp contraction in Bab el-Mandeb traffic that underpins the 44.8% implied probability for fewer than 25 daily transits. Shipping data from Kpler and Clarksons show averages stabilizing near 31–32 vessels per day in late July and early August—roughly 50% below prior suppressed levels—as tankers reroute around the Cape of Good Hope to avoid risk premiums and attacks. Elevated insurance costs and limited near-term de-escalation catalysts sustain trader consensus for subdued volumes through month-end, with the 25–29 bin capturing residual stabilization scenarios.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Khối lượng
$14,964Ngày kết thúc
Aug 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 31, 2026, 2:13 PM ETNguồn giải quyết
IMF PortWatchResolver
0x69c47De9D...Renewed Houthi naval blockade targeting Saudi-linked vessels, announced in July 2026 amid the U.S.-Iran conflict, combined with fresh missile strikes in early August, has driven the sharp contraction in Bab el-Mandeb traffic that underpins the 44.8% implied probability for fewer than 25 daily transits. Shipping data from Kpler and Clarksons show averages stabilizing near 31–32 vessels per day in late July and early August—roughly 50% below prior suppressed levels—as tankers reroute around the Cape of Good Hope to avoid risk premiums and attacks. Elevated insurance costs and limited near-term de-escalation catalysts sustain trader consensus for subdued volumes through month-end, with the 25–29 bin capturing residual stabilization scenarios.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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