Incumbent Rep. Salud Carbajal's dominant position in California's 24th Congressional District top-two primary on June 2 drives trader consensus favoring the Democratic Party at 93.5% to retain the seat in November. The district's Safe Democratic lean—reflected in Kamala Harris's 60.9% 2024 vote share and Carbajal's consistent general election margins above 60%—bolsters this outlook, amplified by his $3.3 million cash-on-hand as of late March, dwarfing Republican Bob Smith's $56,000. Recent candidate profiles underscore a weak GOP challenge amid Democratic voter registration advantages. Realistic shifts require a primary upset advancing two Republicans, a major Carbajal scandal, or a national Republican midterm wave overcoming the partisan tilt.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtCA-24 House Election Winner
CA-24 House Election Winner
$17,816 KL.
$17,816 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
6%
$17,816 KL.
$17,816 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$9,935 KL.
94%
Republican Party
$7,881 KL.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Salud Carbajal's dominant position in California's 24th Congressional District top-two primary on June 2 drives trader consensus favoring the Democratic Party at 93.5% to retain the seat in November. The district's Safe Democratic lean—reflected in Kamala Harris's 60.9% 2024 vote share and Carbajal's consistent general election margins above 60%—bolsters this outlook, amplified by his $3.3 million cash-on-hand as of late March, dwarfing Republican Bob Smith's $56,000. Recent candidate profiles underscore a weak GOP challenge amid Democratic voter registration advantages. Realistic shifts require a primary upset advancing two Republicans, a major Carbajal scandal, or a national Republican midterm wave overcoming the partisan tilt.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Thị trường mở: Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
Khối lượng
$17,816Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Salud Carbajal's dominant position in California's 24th Congressional District top-two primary on June 2 drives trader consensus favoring the Democratic Party at 93.5% to retain the seat in November. The district's Safe Democratic lean—reflected in Kamala Harris's 60.9% 2024 vote share and Carbajal's consistent general election margins above 60%—bolsters this outlook, amplified by his $3.3 million cash-on-hand as of late March, dwarfing Republican Bob Smith's $56,000. Recent candidate profiles underscore a weak GOP challenge amid Democratic voter registration advantages. Realistic shifts require a primary upset advancing two Republicans, a major Carbajal scandal, or a national Republican midterm wave overcoming the partisan tilt.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Khối lượng
$17,816Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Salud Carbajal's dominant position in California's 24th Congressional District top-two primary on June 2 drives trader consensus favoring the Democratic Party at 93.5% to retain the seat in November. The district's Safe Democratic lean—reflected in Kamala Harris's 60.9% 2024 vote share and Carbajal's consistent general election margins above 60%—bolsters this outlook, amplified by his $3.3 million cash-on-hand as of late March, dwarfing Republican Bob Smith's $56,000. Recent candidate profiles underscore a weak GOP challenge amid Democratic voter registration advantages. Realistic shifts require a primary upset advancing two Republicans, a major Carbajal scandal, or a national Republican midterm wave overcoming the partisan tilt.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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